Collingwood v North Melbourne

Saturday 21st July, 1:45pm AEST, MCG

Collingwood

The Pies will be disappointed after last week’s performance where they couldn’t get the job done against an Eagles’ team that was missing arguably their most important player for the majority of the match.  They will get back tall unit Mason Cox for this game who has after a shaky start to the season quickly proven to be a key player in the Pies best 22 with defenders finding it hard to play on him given the height advantage he normally enjoys. This game will be no exception with the tallest Roos defender standing almost 20cm shorter than the big American. His ability to bring the ball to ground for his speedy colleagues will be important in this match with the likes of De Goey, Hoskin-Elliott and Stephenson proven goal-kickers.

North Melbourne

The Roos lost a close one to the Swans last week where they looked like they had it all but won in the dying minutes. They will be coming into this game with an unchanged line-up which is close to their best 22 and will need to win this one to stay in touch with the top 8. Their midfield led by Cunnington and Higgins has been impressive this season and should be able to go toe-to-toe with the Pies mids with the continued absence of Treloar. However, where the Roos are likely to struggle will be up back where they will have their hands full with the medium-sized forwards of the Pies and experienced defender Thompson will need to be at the height of his game to repel them.

Betting Strategy

In what is a critical game for both teams, the model sees the Pies as being too good for the Roos and sees value at $1.57

 BACK – Collingwood to Win


Essendon v Fremantle

Saturday 21st July, 4:35pm AEST, Etihad Stadium

Essendon

After a poor first half to the season, the Bombers have found their form recently having won 4 of their past 5 and are a sneaky chance to make finals. For them to achieve this, this game against the Dockers is a must win and on paper should be an easy one for them despite dropping one to them earlier in the season. The Bombers should be able to take advantage of the absence of two of the Dockers most important players in Fyfe and Sandliands and their ability to score heavily and quickly could turn this game into a blow-out. Even with Stringer out, the likes of Fantasia, McKernan and Tippa should be able to put some real heat on the scoreboard.

Fremantle

The depleted Dockers registered a huge upset win against the Power last week in what was an ugly game for most of the match. Although they dominated the territory and inside-50 game, they were wasteful kicking 8.11 from 58 entries and will need to clean up their efficiency inside-50 if they are to pull off another upset against the Bombers especially away from home. They will be fielding a young line-up this round and with September football out of reach coupled with Fyfe and Sandliands out, expect the Dockers to play a riskier brand of football as they are still experimenting with what works and what doesn’t with their newer players.

Betting Strategy

The Bombers aren’t exactly known for their consistency but the model likes them on the line at -34.5 against a young Dockers side.

 BACK – Essendon -34.5


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