St Kilda vs Carlton

Friday 13th July, 7:50pm AEST, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda

After stringing together a couple of consecutive close 2-point wins, the Saints were brought firmly back to reality when they were dominated by the Power last week. The area of the game that continues to haunt them is there efficiency inside 50 with their players trying to find every possible way they can to butcher a goal. One of the few things Saints fans can be excited about is the form of Armitage who has easily been the Saints best player in recent games and should have another big game this week. This match-up against the bottom of the ladder Blues should be an easy one for them as they will have a much more talented and experienced side on paper with the line of -22.5 looking small. However, we wouldn’t put it past the Saints to find a way to butcher this one too.

Carlton

The Blues are an almost certainty now to finish with the wooden spoon after getting thrashed by the Lions last week. It seems to be the same story for them each week with only a few of the same players turning up to play each week with the rest of the team content to be spectators. Looking at their schedule ahead, this is probably one of only two matches where they will have a genuine chance to get a win and under-fire coach Brendan Bolton will need his Blues to produce something special for him to affirm that he is the right man for the job. Unfortunately, it is hard to see them winning this one given their lack of confidence in the way they’ve been playing which has been on a steady trajectory down.

Betting Strategy

In a season that has been disappointing for both teams, the model is siding with the experience of St Kilda and sees the line of -22.5 as too small.


Hawthorn v Brisbane

Saturday 14th July, 1:45pm AEST, University of Tasmania Stadium

Hawthorn

The Hawks will be travelling to their surrogate home ground in Launceston this round where they will be looking to avenge their Round 9 loss against the Lions. Since that loss, the Hawks have been one of the more in-form teams in the competition and have crept into the top 8 after their drubbing of the Western Bulldogs last week. Although many are writing this off as an easy win for the Hawks, they will need to be cautious of the fast ball movement of the Lions that already exposed their defence once in their Round 9 loss. The loss of McEvoy will make the job harder for them with Brisbane big man Martin likely to be able to dominate substitute ruckman Ceglar. The Hawk’s midfield will need to ensure they can cover this gap or else we may be in for another upset.

Brisbane

The Lions are playing some of the best footy we’ve seen from them in a long time and with such a young list, can only get better. Having strung 2 consecutive wins together, they’ll feel like they are a genuine chance to make it a third with a second win over the Hawks this season. Hipwood had a big day in their previous game booting 4 goals and given his recent form, will be the main target for the Lions mids up forward. They will need to stick to the same recipe of fast footy that has worked so well for them and not go into their shell as they will be coming up against one of the most potent forward lines in the competition. This game could very well end up being a shoot-out.

Betting Strategy

The model sees value in the Lions pulling off a second upset against the Hawks at odds of $4.70+


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