Richmond vs Adelaide

Friday 6th July, 7:50pm AEST MCG


The reigning premiers have firmly established themselves as the team to beat and are the clear favourites to take the flag again this year. They have looked near unstoppable at The G with their only three blemishes to their record this year being away from home, one of them being against the Crows. Although the Round 2 game remained close for the majority of the match, they were smashed in the air with the Tigers seeming to have no answer to the talls of Tex and Jenkins who booted 9 goals between them. They will have one less thing to worry about this game with Betts out of action but will need to find a way to shut down the tall heavy forward line of the Crows. Rance will be instrumental in this task and he will need to do a much better job on Jenkins than he did in their previous clash.


The Crows kept their finals chances alive by pulling off a huge comeback win against the Eagles last week. The final score probably flattered the Eagles in the end with the Crows dominating the match in all areas except the scoreboard registering 14 more scoring shots and 32 more inside 50’s. After a prolonged injury slump, the Crows have gotten back the majority of their best 22 with another big in this week in the form of Lynch. We know they have the talent to beat the reigning premiers with the Crows winning 4 of their past 5 clashes … the big variable will be which Adelaide Crows team turns up.

Betting strategy

This is a big game for the Crows whose finals chances are hanging by a thread and the model seems them as value at $4.40+

BACK – Crows to win at $4.40

Brisbane vs Carlton

Saturday 7th July, 1:45pm AEST Adelaide Oval


The Lions recorded their second win of the season last week with a 55-point win against the Dockers away from home. The Lions showed in this game just how much they have improved with their constant pressure around the ball and slick ball movement being a stark contrast from the beginning of the season. This bottom of the ladder clash against the Blues might be more one-sided than their records would suggest with the Lions playing the much better footy as of late. The Lions will need to avoid getting sucked into the Blues game of slow measured ball movement and if they can continue with their fast-paced style of footy, they should be able to open up the Blues and record their third win of the season.


The bottom of the ladder Blues are now firm favourites to take out the wooden spoon this season with their best chance of avoiding that honour being a win against the Lions this week. Although sitting on a solitary win, there have been a few things to like about the Blues this season, one of them being the sizzling form of Charlie Curnow. For the Blues to win, they’ll need to get the ball into his reliable hands as he should have a significant advantage against his direct opposition with the Lions first choice Andrews still out with injury. Unfortunately for the Blues, they have not had a good record playing at the Gabba with the visitors losing their last 4 here.

Betting strategy

The model sees the Lions being too good at home in this wooden spoon clash seeing odds of $1.43+ as value

BACK – Brisbane Lions to win at $1.43

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