Port Adelaide vs Melbourne

Friday 22nd June, 7:50pm AEST Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide

After a shaky start to the season, the Power have played some superb footy in recent rounds to prove that they are genuine premiership contenders this year. They’ve looked dangerous up forward with the combination of Dixon and the Grays troubling even the most experienced of defences. The in-form Dees will be a tough obstacle in front of them and the Power’s biggest risk is not to get overrun by the Dees attack which has scored on average 106 points per game. The return of hard-nut defender Tom Jonas is a crucial inclusion but the talent in the Dees forward line may be too much for the Power to handle.

Melbourne

The Dees winning streak was cut short before the bye losing to the Pies in a good old-fashioned Queen’s Birthday shoot-out. Prior to that, the Dees were riding a 6-game winning streak where a key feature in their dominance was their ability to move the ball quickly and effortlessly down the field. However, these 6 wins have all been against bottom-8 sides and this game against the Power in foreign territory will prove whether the Dees this season are the real deal or merely just flat-track bullies. The battle of the All-Australian ruckmen Gawn and Ryder will be a highlight in this match and Gawn will have to be on the top of his game if the Dees are to get the W with his role in their structure being instrumental to their chances of winning.

 

Betting Strategy

The Dees will be eager to get their season back on track after the Bye and the model sees value in them at $2.40+

 BACK – Melbourne to win at $2.40


Brisbane vs Greater Western Sydney

Saturday 23rd June, 4:35pm AEST GABBA

Brisbane

Despite sitting on a solitary win, the Lions have a lot to look forward to with a marked improvement in how they have played in recent rounds compared to early in the season. They have shown that they aren’t afraid to take the game on and will come into this game with the genuine belief they can upset the injury-ridden Giants especially on home turf. With Lobb out, big man Martin should have his way against the Giants duo of Simpson and Patton and he will need to ensure he gives his team first use to compensate for the skill difference in the midfield. The Lions have not won a game the last 5 times these teams have played but if they can get the win here, they will have the tangible evidence that they are heading in the right direction.

Greater Western Sydney

After a prolonged form (and injury) slump, the Giants were able to string a couple of wins together against the Crows and the Suns before the bye. Although not the most significant of victories, it does put them back in the winner’s circle and they will be keen to keep their premiership aspirations alive with a third consecutive win. However, they may rue this day if they get complacent with the Lions showing they aren’t afraid to take the game on with a high-risk style of footy. This coupled with the fact that the Giants have historically not been great travellers means we may have a more competitive game than most would think on our hands.

Betting strategy

Despite the Lions sitting on a single win for the season, the model shows this game being closer than the odds would suggest and finds value at $3.80

 BACK – Brisbane to win at $3.80


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