Geelong vs North Melbourne

Saturday 9th June, 1:45pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium

Geelong

The little master was let loose last week where he was out on a mission to prove to the doubters that he had a place in the Cats’ already star-studded midfield. Although a thumping of the Suns isn’t anything to write home about, the Cats seem to be finally finding how to best utilise their big 3 to their maximum potential, which was always going to have some teething problems. Although the Roos have been playing some inspiring footy recently, it’s hard to see the Cats losing the battle in the midfield with the stacked talent they have in this area. In addition, the ability of their mids to present as dangerous options up forward throughout the game will add another thing for the Roo’s defense to worry about. Look for Dangerfield and Ablett to kick a few goals between them.

North Melbourne

We keep saying it, but the Roos continue to defy all expectations and are coming into this game 6th on the ladder, having won 4 of their last 5 games. There are glimpses of the 2016 Western Bulldogs in how they’ve been playing this year, making up for what they lack in raw talent with an intensity and a fearlessness in how they play. Sharpshooter Brown will have an easier task ahead of him with Harry Taylor still out with foot issues and getting some clean ball into his hands will be the main challenge for their mids. They will also need to find a way to limit the influence of the Cat’s big 3 or else this could get ugly especially as they are venturing into hostile territory of the Cat’s fortress at Simonds.

Betting Strategy

The model sees value in the Cats at $1.48 with the big 3 likely to put on a show in front of their home crowd.

 BACK – Geelong to win at $1.48


St Kilda vs Sydney

Saturday 9th June, 7:25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium

St Kilda

Although the Saints are sitting on a solitary win in 16th position, there may be some hope for them yet with their last 2 games proving that they have the capability to kick accurately, which seemed an impossibility in the earlier rounds. For their clash with the Swans, they will still be without Carlisle which is a big out for them especially given that a big bag from Buddy looms. However, the Saints are now at a point where they have nothing to lose and sporting history has shown that’s when teams can pull off the biggest upsets. If they can produce free flowing brave footy that they’ve shown glimpses of in the last 2 rounds, then who knows what could happen.

Sydney

Although the Swans are coming into this game on a 4-game winning streak, they have looked pretty average in their last two against the bottom of the ladder Lions and Blues. The Swans will need to ensure they don’t get lazy and get too Franklin-focussed as it seems teams have recently learned how to stifle his influence. Luckily for them they have other dangers up forward such as super-rookie Ronke who is capable of finding the sticks in the most unlikely of situations. History will be on their side with the Swans winning the last 5 against the Saints.

Betting strategy

The model finds value in the unpopular choice of the Saints at $4.50 in a game where they have nothing to lose.

 BACK – St Kilda to win at $4.50


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