Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 2nd June, 2:10pm EST – University of Tasmania Stadium

Hawthorn

The Hawks are entering this game on a 3-game losing streak and will be desperate for a win as they travel to Tasmania for the second time this season. Although containing the likes of young guns Mitchell and O’Meara, the Hawks mids have struggled at times this season and they will need to find a way to better connect with McEvoy if they are to win. However, McEvoy will have a tough task ahead of him and will not enjoy the advantage he usually has against his counterpart with our model rating Ryder slightly ahead of him. Their duel will be pivotal to the outcome of this game as both forward lines are capable of firing quickly.

Port Adelaide

Travelling to Tasmania to face the Hawks is usually a tough ask for any team but the Power will be embracing the timing of this fixture as they will be well rested after a long break following their match in Shanghai. The Power have had an up-and-down first half of the season but have shown that they have the talent to beat the best teams when they are firing having taken big scalps of Sydney and Adelaide so far. The Power’s forward line is their biggest threat and the current forecast of sunny conditions should be perfect for them to rack up a big score.

Betting Strategy

This Power should have the advantage over the Hawks in what is likely to be a close match. The model sees the current odds of $1.92 as value.

 BACK – Port Adelaide to win at $1.92


Collingwood vs Fremantle

Sunday 3rd June, 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Collingwood

The Pies are entering Round 11 off the back of a second half drubbing of the Western Bulldogs where they were able to keep the fast starting 2016 premiers goalless in the second half. Although their structure has looked shaky at times, the Pies have been playing some quality football in 2018 and are odds-on to break their 4-year drought of missing finals footy. Probably the biggest reason for this has been Brody Grundy’s performance so far which has quickly made him the Pies’ most important player and according to our model as of Round 11, the best big man in the competition. With Sandilands gone, he will have a field day against substitute ruckman Apeness and we see the clearances being one-way traffic in favour of the Pies.

Fremantle

The Dockers will need to find another gear if they are any chance of beating the Pies at the MCG and the loss of Stephen Hill and Sandilands doesn’t help that cause. Despite a promising start to the season, the Dockers have been poor recently where nothing has looked easy whether it be scoring goals or getting the ball out of their back-half. The gaping hole for the Dockers is their lack of threats up forward which will allow the Pies’ to play a more aggressive style of defense which will cause all sorts of trouble for their own back-line. Superstar Fyfe will easily be the best player on field but one player can only do so much.

Betting Strategy

The Pies at home should be too good for the Dockers and the model suggests the -28.5 line is too small.

 BACK – Collingwood -28.5


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