Port Adelaide vs Fremantle

Saturday 24nd March, 4:35pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide come into the 2018 season with one of their strongest lists yet and although they’ll be missing All-Australian Robbie Gray, they should still have plenty of firepower to dismantle Fremantle with ease.

The Power have been criticised over the years for their inconsistency but the one thing that has always been a constant is their ability to bully the lower end of the ladder which is where Fremantle are likely to be this season. In 2017 they beat teams in the bottom 8 by an average margin of 61 points which shows how potent their forward line can be, especially against weaker defenses. Expect the likes of Dixon and Wingard to score frequently and heavily in what is likely to be a high scoring affair.

Fremantle

The Dockers are coming into 2018 eager to prove that they are still competitive despite a 14th place finish in 2017. They have abandoned their defense heavy, stoppage heavy style of footy and will be looking to move the ball around the ground quicker than they have in the past. They will be blooding a couple of their young guns this round and if they can keep the game close, especially playing away at Adelaide, this can see this as a positive. Veteran Michael Johnson will have a tough time up back organising the Dockers’ relatively inexperienced defense against what we see as the best forward line in the competition, so this will be a good test for them.

Betting Strategy

Our model has Port Adelaide as significant favourites and even at short odds of $1.28 – $1.29 we see value.

Back on Betfair  BACK – Port Adelaide


Gold Coast vs North Melbourne

Saturday 24rd March, 7:25pm AEDT – Cazaly Stadium

Gold Coast

The Suns come into 2018 with one of the youngest and most inexperienced lists in the competition. The big talking point for the Suns over the off-season was the loss of Gary Ablett to the Cats which could actually prove to be a positive for them as they will want to work on a more balanced style of footy that doesn’t rely on 1 or 2 players. Our model has them rated as below average to poor in all areas, however the big question mark will be their level of improvement over the break which should have a relatively greater upside given their young list.

North Melbourne

The Roos are in rebuild mode and know themselves that making finals this year will be a long shot. Although they have been on the decline, the Kangaroos still have some top talent in Cunnington, Goldstein, Higgins and Ziebell and we expect them to have an edge in most areas against the Suns. One of their biggest problems in prior seasons has been their ability to convert inside 50’s into scoring opportunities but we don’t see this being an issue against the Suns who are fielding one of the poorer defenses in the competition.

Betting Strategy

We see odds of $2.00 on the Kangaroos as good value.

Back on Betfair BACK – North Melbourne


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