Geelong vs Western Bulldogs

Friday May 19, 7:50pm AEST – Simonds Stadium

The market likes the reigning premiers and we expect them to start as favourites in a tight betting contest. On form, that makes sense. Geelong have lost three in a row, whereas the Bulldogs have been impressive all year, even in losses and even through significant injuries.

However, the Cats have won 11 of their last 12 matches at Simonds Stadium. They’ve also won their last ten matches against the Bulldogs, an unbelievable statistic. Patrick Dangerfield’s form matches that of Geelong’s against the Bulldogs and we expect him to return to his game influencing best at Simonds. The weather will be cold and wet so we’re expecting a tight game but the current odds for Geelong are irresistible. You’ll almost never see them at this price at Simonds.

Betting Strategy

Back – Geelong H2H

Greater Western Sydney vs Richmond

Saturday May 20, 4:35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium

We realise that Richmond lost at home last week but David Mundy’s kick after the siren has had too much impact on the Tigers’ price this week. Similarly, if Steven Johnson didn’t steal the win against a Treloar-less Collingwood team, would they be this short in Round 9?

Richmond are expected to regain Dion Prestia this week, whereas the Giants have lost another key player. Stephen Coniglio joins Deledio, Hopper, Griffen, Buntine and Kennedy on the injury list. These injuries and the Giants form means they are under the odds, and certainly not deserving of five goal favouritism. Adding to our confidence is Richmond’s recent record in Sydney. They’ve won four of their last five and are undefeated at Spotless Stadium.

Betting Strategy

Back – Richmond H2H

Back – Richmond +27.5

Essendon vs West Coast

Sunday May 21, 1:10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium

West Coast are third on the ladder and have won three in a row. Their last two visits to Etihad Stadium against the Bombers were a three-point loss and a 53-point win.

The Eagles are often criticised for their form in Melbourne but their Docklands record isn’t the same as the MCG. Etihad is not as wide as the MCG, suiting West Coast’s game style. The last time the Eagles played at Etihad they won by 43 against the Kangaroos. We also think the Eagles recent form is significantly stronger than Essendon’s. After losing to Hawthorn, the Eagles are 3-0, with impressive wins over the Dockers, Power and Bulldogs. Essendon had comprehensive losses to the Dockers and Demons before upsetting the Cats last week.

Adding to our West Coast confidence is Essendon’s inability to get the ball into scoring positions. The Bombers are currently 16th in the competition for inside 50s. On form and depth of talent, West Coast should win comprehensively.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -11.5

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