Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

Saturday May 6, 4:35pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Both teams are four wins and two losses, however, the Power have been one of the competition standouts. Their points scored and against percentage is 152%, with West Coast at only 113%. Despite the Power’s form, we like the Eagles to cover the line. It’s been well documented that West Coast struggle on the road, however, they have won four of their last five at Adelaide Oval. Few teams would have that record. The flight is a relatively short one from Perth, but more importantly, we believe the oval dimensions are favourable. Adelaide Oval is a long and slim venue, only 2m wider than Domain Stadium where they hold perhaps the strongest home field advantage in the competition. The MCG on the other hand, where West Coast are ridiculed, is 24 metres wider. That extra width is not conducive to the Eagles game style but Adelaide Oval is. The Betfair Model believes the Eagles are value as well and Josh Kennedy enjoys playing Port, having kicked seven in their last game at Adelaide Oval.

Betting Strategy 

BACK – West Coast +20.5

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions

Sunday May 7, 1:10 AEST – SCG

The Brisbane Lions have had losing records against most clubs in the last decade, but Sydney have been their absolute worst. The Swans have won the last nine. However, Sydney are 0-6. History suggests that a team will never make the finals from that position, so like Hawthorn, we can assume their previous reputation no longer applies. Not only that, but they are averaging 80 points per game and have yet to hit 100. How then are they a 50% chance of winning by 44.5 points or more? Brisbane is without their captain, Dayne Beams, but the market has aggressively moved further in Sydney’s favour with that news. Punters have been expecting Sydney to suddenly return to their reputation for five weeks. With their injury challenges, and lack of evolution, what if that never happens?

Betting Strategy

BACK – Brisbane Lions +39.5

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks

Sunday May 7, 3:20 AEST – MCG

The Demons are 3-0 with Jordan Lewis and 0-3 without him. Hawthorn are the second worst contested ball winning team in the competition. Whilst the media normally over play a former player facing his first team for the first time, Jordan Lewis could well be the difference in this game.

The Demons haven’t been that great so far in 2017 but Hawthorn have been deplorable. They’re 16th for inside 50s and averaging only 76.8 points per game. They’re not winning the contested ball, they’re not getting the ball forward and they’re not scoring. Given they have had few injuries and they’re gameplan is hard to change at this point, Hawthorn are legitimate threat for the wooden spoon. Melbourne are not. The Demons are without ruckmen but they’re still cover the line in this game. We expect the market to move towards Melbourne as Sunday approaches, particularly with a clear forecast.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Melbourne -14.5

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