North Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns

Saturday April 29, 7:25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium

The Gold Coast are coming off a heavy loss, but it was to the most form team of the competition. Their two previous week’s include an 86 point win over Hawthorn and a win at Etihad Stadium.

Additionally, the Suns are the number one centre clearance team in the competition and have won three of the last four against the Kangaroos, including one at Etihad.

It’s well documented that North are unlucky to be 0-5, but they are. They’re also two from their last 17. We don’t understand how any team with that record can be such strong favourites, particularly when there are injury concerns over Jack Ziebell, Todd Goldstein and Ben Brown.

Shaun Higgins didn’t play last week either. North Melbourne don’t have the depth to cover their experienced players so if any miss against the Suns it will be significant. The Gold Coast appear to be a side that either win or lose comprehensively so we won’t be touching the line. They’re a win only bet.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Gold Coast Suns Head to Head

West Coast Eagles v Fremantle Dockers

Saturday April 29, 6:10pm AEST – Domain Stadium

West Coast might have won the last three derbies but we can’t see how they are heavy favourites here. Their Hawthorn loss highlighted more issues than just the MCG.

One concern is that stopping Priddis has been stopping the Eagles. The brownlow medallist had 22 touches against the Hawks and 23 against their loss to Richmond. We’re sure Ross took note.

Fremantle weren’t impressive at all last week but they now have three wins a row. We think Aaron Sandilands, in his 250th, will have a pronounced impact on the clearances, particularly with the new ruck rule and with Nic Naitanui’s long term absence.

Fremantle will be hoping for quiet games from Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras, and midfield control will help that. We like the Dockers to win but the line provides a welcome safety net.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Fremantle + 18.5

Geelong Cats v Collingwood Magpies

Saturday April 29, 3:20pm AEST – MCG

If you can’t beat them, join them. We’ve taken a long way to come around to the Cats, and it’s been costly, but the line looks too small this week. Collingwood are the second lowest scoring team in the competition and their forward line inefficiencies continue.

They overposses the football and weren’t able to fire on Anzac Day despite being under pressure and heavily supported in betting markets.

Meanwhile, Geelong are undefeated and have scored over 100 points every game this year. Their explosive last quarters have turned close games into margin covering wins.

Recent history actually favours Collingwood in this matchup but the current form is incomparable and Geelong are coming off two extra days rest.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong -26.5

Related Articles

AFL Insights: Round 7 2017

We expect the market to move towards Melbourne as Sunday approaches, particularly with a clear forecast.

Read More

AFL Insights: Round 8 2017

Importantly, Port’s wins this year have been by 28, 89, 90 and 83. When they win, they cover.

Read More

AFL Insights: Round 9 2017

On form and depth of talent, West Coast should win comprehensively.

Read More