AFL Insights: Round 5 2017 (Anzac Day Game)

Essendon Bombers v Collingwood Magpies

Tuesday April 25, 3:20pm AEST – MCG

Betting suggests this year’s ANZAC Day game will be a tight, low scoring game. The current forecast has 10mm of rain on the morning of the game, with money continually pushing the total point markets down. Additionally, both teams are struggling for form and under pressure.

The Betfair Model is taking confidence in Collingwood though, marking them $1.46 favourites. Whilst the Magpies forward line has room for improvement they average significantly more tackles, contested possessions, clearances and inside 50s than the Bombers.

Additionally, Collingwood have beaten Essendon in six of their last nine meetings. The conditions should favour a midfield battle and under those circumstances we lean towards Collingwood.

After picking a winner, we move on to the ANZAC Day Medal. We normally look for goal kicking midfielders in best on ground medals. Steele Sidebottom and David Zaharakis stand out as previous medallists but their form doesn’t match their odds. Additionally, given these two teams average the third and fourth most possessions in the competition, and the conditions don’t favour goals, we are looking at prolific ball winners.

Adam Treloar is a deserving favourite but we prefer two other midfielders, Taylor Adams and Zach Merrett. Both players have had over 30 possessions in three of their four games this year. We suggest backing Merrett is you like Essendon and Adams if you like Collingwood.

Additionally, there’s always tremendous value to be had on some of the less heralded players. Travis Colyer looks over the odds after his 24 disposals and three goal game against Adelaide.

Then at even bigger odds is Tom Phillips for the Magpies. The Rising Star eligible midfielder has posted 26 and 27 disposal games so far this season and has the ability to achieve a Mark McGough moment at huge odds.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Collingwood Head to Head

ANZAC Day Medal

Collingwood Best – Taylor Adams

Collingwood Roughie – Tom Phillips

Essendon’s Best – Zach Merrett

Essendon Roughie – Travis Colyer

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