Collingwood Magpies v St Kilda Saints

Sunday April 16, 3:20pm – Etihad Stadium

Both the market and the Betfair Model are hot on the Pies. However, we like the Saints. Collingwood’s tough win in Sydney is being overvalued, whilst St Kilda’s first win is largely being ignored. With 37 scoring shots, the Saints dominated the Lions. It was only wayward kicking that kept the margin to five goals. St Kilda are likely get both David Armitage and Jack Steven back this week. Etihad Stadium is a significant factor, favouring the Saints faster ball movement, and we think that will be the difference.

Betting Strategy

BACK – St Kilda

Brisbane Lions v Richmond Tigers

Sunday April 16, 4:40pm – Gabba

Unless Dustin Martin’s injured, we’re anticipating one way betting for Richmond in this contest. The Betfair Model makes the Tigers $1.28, shorter than the market, reflecting Richmond’s form. Not only are the Tigers 3-0 in 2017 but they have beaten Brisbane the last nine times in a row. That comprehensive history and the Richmond confidence means they should cover the line in sunny conditions. However there’s enough value in the head to head market at $1.40 to make that the smarter play.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Richmond

Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats

Monday April 17, 3:20pm – MCG

We have to wait until Monday for our bet of the round. Going against the model and the market, we like winless Hawthorn at the MCG. Geelong caught a huge break last weekend, not only with Lewis and Hogan being suspended, but Jack Watts ended up playing ruckman instead of their injured All-Australian. We think the Cats 3-0 record is flattering and the recent criticism of the Hawks and their coach is similar to what inspired Rodney Eade and Gary Ablett to beat them last week.

This classic rivalry produces highly entertaining games, with big swings in momentum. We’ll be laying Geelong head to head early in the week and potentially trading during the game. There’s also value in taking Hawthorn with the significant +15.5 line.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Geelong

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