Geelong Cats v Melbourne Demons

Saturday April 8, 4:35pm – Etihad Stadium

The Demons are without suspended pair Jordan Lewis and Jesse Hogan. They also lost to Geelong by 111 points in round 23 last year. Good reasons to back the Cats. However, Bernie Vince returning from suspension, as well as the 30+ possession form of Oliver, Tyson and Jones mitigates the Lewis absence. Melbourne overcame any Etihad Stadium demons when they dominated the Saints two weeks ago. The same venue that Geelong struggled to overcome the winless North Melbourne last week. We think the Cats are vulnerable in 2017 and are over-valued in this matchup. The Betfair Model makes Geelong $1.50, which equates to a lay suggestion based on the early market price of $1.43. We are expecting high scoring and there should be live trading opportunities for the risk averse.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Geelong

Fremantle Dockers v Western Bulldogs

Saturday April 8, 7:40pm – Domain Stadium

Fremantle actually won this game at Domain Stadium last year. They beat the Bulldogs in round 23, before the Dogs won four straight and claimed the premiership. However, no one is expecting the Dockers to win this one. In fact, we don’t think they will cover the 31.5 point line. Fremantle have lost by 42 and 89 points in their opening two rounds, against teams with less goal scoring potential than the premiers have, and are looking to blood some younger players into the team. The Bulldogs on the other hand are undefeated and winning tough games without playing their best football. Internal competition for spots should only improve results and we don’t see the Bulldogs taking winless Fremantle easy. The weather forecast is clear and we see the Bulldogs enjoying the space of Domain Stadium with their run and carry.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Western Bulldogs -31.5

Carlton Blues v Essendon Bombers

Sunday April 9, 2:50pm – MCG

The biggest discrepancy between the Betfair Model and the market is in this game. The Model rates Carlton $2.86 H2H. With heavy rain forecast for Melbourne all day Sunday, that’s likely to reduce scoring and therefore margin. We’ve rated Carlton shorter than the 28.5 point start. The only news that will waiver that confidence is that Patrick Cripps is out with a hairline jaw fracture. The contested ball winner would normally relish these conditions. However, with or without Cripps, it’s difficult to see Essendon winning by five goals or more in potentially four inches of rain. Orazio Fantasia and Joe Daniher should find these conditions more difficult than their good early form.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +28.5

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