Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans

Friday March 31, 7:50pm AEDT – Etihad Stadium

The Bulldogs have won their last three games against the Swans. Two in Sydney and one in a Grand Final. With recent history and last week’s form, you would think the Bulldogs would be shorter. In addition, you can expect bigger games from Bontempelli and Liberatore this week, after they only managed 38 disposals between them in round one. The Bulldogs started later than most sides and like the Swans will improve deeper into the season. Although they appeared casual at times last week, Etihad Stadium suits the premier’s speed. The 10.5 line looks thin and the Betfair model has rated them 21-point favourites.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Western Bulldogs line -10.5

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers

Saturday April 1, 7:25pm AEDT – The Gabba

Essendon hit an emotional high last weekend with their triumphant return against a fading Hawthorn who looked slow and soft across the park. We’re not sure they’ll have the same intensity after flying to the Gabba. With 80-150mm of rain forecast in Brisbane Thursday, there has to be a big watch on totals and margin betting which also might play into the lions hands.  Brisbane look to be improving defensively under Chris Fagan and should take confidence from holding on last week. With Beams, Rockliff and Zorko all firing, we think Brisbane is an early market overlay at $3.20 Head-To-Head can be traded out in-play for the less risk adverse. The Betfair Model rates Brisbane $2.05 HTH. With a start of 17.5 points, the best pre-play option is Brisbane with the handicap at even money.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Brisbane Lions +17.5

Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues

Sunday April 2, 3:20pm AEDT – MCG

When these two met last year the Demons were coming off a huge win against Hawthorn and then a win in Adelaide. However, Carlton caused the upset at a big price. We think Simon Goodwin will be using that footage to ensure his team has the same intensity against the Blues, as they did in their commanding five-goal win against the Saints. Max Gawn dominated last week, showing his appreciation of the new ruck rules with 21 Hitouts to advantage. It’s no wonder Melbourne kicked 18 goals, they had four midfielders with 30 or more disposals. If Carlton couldn’t contain Dustin Martin last week, how are they going to slow down Jones, Viney, Oliver, Lewis, Petracca and Brayshaw?

Betting Strategy

BACK – Melbourne Demons line -29.5

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