Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants

Saturday July 8, 1:45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium

In the last eight matches that the Giants started favourite they have covered the line once. One from eight. We think this trend will continue and so does the Betfair Model, who makes the Hawks significantly shorter than the market.

Hawthorn are five from their last six at the University of Tasmania Stadium (42-12 overall) and have quietly won two games in a row. Their list might be less talented than the Giants in 2017 but they are healthier.

Toby Greene is expected to miss another game, with Steve Johnson and Zac Williams absent as well. They join Coniglio, Deledio, Griffen, Hopper, Kennedy, Taranto and more on a crowded injury list. It’s remarkable that the Giants are still on top of the AFL ladder, however, we think they’ll struggle to cover the Hawks.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Hawthorn +14.5

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons

Sunday July 9, 3:20pm AEST – MCG

The Demons are expected to be boosted by Jesse Hogan but his emotive and physical presence can’t make up for the absentees. Jack Viney joins Nathan Jones, Christian Salem and Dom Tyson on the injured list, decimating their midfield as well as their leadership. Jack Watts and Jeff Garlett might miss as well.

Carlton, despite losing to Melbourne earlier this year, have a 7-2 record against the Demons. And they’re form is credible. They were beaten by two top four teams, Adelaide and Richmond, but had two wins before that, including a win against the premiership favourites.

Carlton’s midfield of Gibbs, Kreuzer, Cripps and Murphy should get on top of the depleted Demons in what will be a tight contest at the MCG.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +7.5

West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Power

Sunday July 9, 4:45pm AEST – Domain Stadium

The early money this week is for the Power. That defies recent history. Port Adelaide has won only one of its last four trips to Perth and already lost to the Eagles at home this year. They’re also yet to beat a top eight team.

West Coast, on the other hand, have won two of their last three and are expected to regain some of their biggest names. If LeCras and Kennedy return to their forward line they’ll have the firepower to beat Port Adelaide and reclaim their home ground dominance.

The Betfair Model also makes West Coast shorter.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -7.5

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