Brisbane V Greater Western Sydney

Saturday June 24, 4:35pm AEST – GABBA

We underestimated the Lions last week, despite tipping them to beat Fremantle the week before. Rockliff, Martin, Zorko and Beams are all elite players and they are starting to get consistent contributions from futures champions like Harris Andrews, Eric Hipwood and Jake Barrett.

Meanwhile, the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) injury curse isn’t slowing down. Their Brownlow contender, Josh Kelly, will likely miss this week, forcing GWS to debut more inexperienced players.. Moreover, the Giants haven’t had a 5+ goal win since round three. They might be second on the ladder at 9-3 but their 116% depicts how close those wins have been.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Brisbane +33.5

West Coast V Melbourne

Saturday June 24, 7:40pm AEST – Domain Stadium

It’s never a great idea to back against West Coast at home. Particularly when the Demons are on a six day break with Nathan Jones and Jack Watts in doubt. However, we believe the Demons are a legitimate finals side, even before they demolished the reigning premiers.

Max Gawn’s return is as huge as he is. And whilst Jones’ leadership could be missed, his midfield possessions will just go to another player. The Demons have so many ball winners, even in their reserve team.

The Betfair Model, which actually puts a lot of value on home ground advantage, gives Melbourne a real chance. The algorithm has them $2.45, with the market currently trading above $3. West Coast only won last year’s contest by six points and Melbourne have improved dramatically since then. We’ll be nervous if Josh Kennedy takes the field but the Demons are value now, and even more so if he doesn’t.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Melbourne Head to Head

Richmond V Carlton

Sunday June 25, 3:20 pm AEST – MCG

The Tiger’s would be gutted with last week’s loss but we expect them to bounce back against a familiar foe. Richmond has won the last five games against Carlton by an average margin of 24.6 points. Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Alex Rance and Trent Cotchin all have good form against the Blues but we expect big games from their support cast. Shaun Grigg has actually been Richmond’s statistical best in previous games over his former team and Brandon Ellis’’ numbers exceed his averages. New addition, Dion Prestia, should also excel.

Despite Carlton’s two win form, we like Richmond to cover the two goal line. The Betfair Model is showing even more confidence, marking the Tigers as $1.30 favourites.

Betting Strategy

BACK -Richmond -13.5

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