Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Thursday June 1, 7:50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Despite seven teams being above them on the ladder, Port Adelaide are a genuine premiership contender. Ebert, Boak and Robbie Gray are back to their 2014 form, with Wingard, Wines and potentially Charlie Dixon taking them to the next level. Hawthorn, despite four impressive wins this year, struggle with consistency and won’t be playing finals. They’re not on the same level as the Power.

We’ve discussed this before but when Port win, they win big. Their average winning margin is 72.4 points. Whereas Hawthorn’s average losing margin is 52.3. With sunshine forecast in Adelaide over the weekend we expect Port to cover.

Betting Strategy

Back – Port Adelaide -33.5

Geelong vs Adelaide

Friday June 2, 7:50pm AEST – Simonds Stadium

In Geelong wins this season Patrick Dangerfield has averaged over 30 disposals and 2.2 goals. In losses, he’s down to 26 and 1 goal. If you want to beat the Cats, you can’t let Dangerfield kick the ball, especially goals. You need to keep him to 21 disposals like Collingwood, not take him on head to head like the Western Bulldogs do.

If there’s one team that knows Patrick Dangerfield’s strengths and weaknesses, it’s his former club. The Crows will be emotionally and strategically determined to stop the Brownlow medallist. It also helps that they are the best team in the competition, with more firepower than one player.

We liked Adelaide head to head but if you get this mail late, when the Crows have shortened, take the line for more value.

Betting Strategy 

Back – Adelaide H2H

Fremantle vs Collingwood

Sunday June 4, 4:40pm AEST – Domain Stadium

Our eyes normally light up when we see Collingwood away from Melbourne. They travel like no other. However, there’s no value in doing that this week. The market has overreacted from recent results. Fremantle lost by 100, while Collingwood had a 45 point win. Although the marketing appears to be forgetting that Fremantle played the merciless premiership favourites in Adelaide while Collingwood hosted the wooden spoon certainties.

We’re concerned over the Sandilands injury cloud but we take confidence in Fremantle’s three matches before the Crows. They beat Carlton, Richmond and Essendon, all of whom have defeated Collingwood in 2017. The Dockers have two more wins than the Pies and look over the odds at home.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Fremantle H2H

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