Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda

Saturday May 27, 1:45pm AEST – Etihad Stadium

We normally get excited when St Kilda are outsiders at the Docklands. However, a close examination of their form shows that they’re underperforming in 2017. Apart from their win against the injured Giants, the Saints haven’t beaten another team in the eight. Wins against Brisbane (18th), Hawthorn (17th), Carlton (16th) and Collingwood (13th) are expectations, not achievements. Their 50-point loss to Sydney (12th) at Etihad last week can’t be overlooked either.

The Bulldogs have the same five win four loss record as the Saints but they’ve had a tougher draw, lost by smaller margins and had a horrible run with injury. We like the selection statement Luke Beveridge made with Tom Liberatore last week and we’re encouraged by Jake Stringer’s return. We expect the Bulldogs to get their title defense back on track with a line covering win.

Betting Strategy

Back – Western Bulldogs -13.5


Melbourne vs Gold Coast

Saturday May 27, 4:35pm AEST – TOP Traeger Park

Melbourne haven’t won any of their three “home” games in Alice Springs. Plus they’ve only managed to score 76, 54 and 75 points in each game. Recent home losses to North Melbourne and Hawthorn at the MCG are also cause for concern.

The Suns are just as easy to criticise but they’re heavy losses have all come to premiership favourites, Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide. We expected them to struggle in China and are concerned that they’ll start slow after an extra week off, but we’re encouraged by the probable return of David Swallow as well as Rory Thompson and Matt Rosa. Additionally, the Suns are the number one centre clearance side in the AFL, and without Gawn or Spencer, they can dominate the Demons in the middle. We’re taking Gold Coast at the two and a half goal line.

Betting Strategy

Back – Gold Coast +14.5


West Coast vs GWS

Sunday May 28, 4:40pm AEST – Domain Stadium

This is the third week in a row we’re taking on the Giants. We recommended Collingwood and Richmond each way (head to head and line), and feel very stiff not to have won on all four options. GWS have the most significant injury list in the AFL with Steve Johnson and Rory Lobb joining a dozen others.

The Giants travel five hours to take on the Eagles. Whilst West Coast were deplorable again in Melbourne, they are undefeated against the Giants, even beating them at Spotless last year. Prior to that, West Coast won at home by 83 and 111 points. We don’t think the Eagles will keep their Giant record for many more games but the injury discrepancy is too big to ignore.

If West Coast cover the line, as we predict, then it will be a great time to back the Giants for the premiership. Their draw becomes soft over the next two months while they regain their squad.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -9.5


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