Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats

Friday September 22, 7:50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

The Crows should win at home. It’s hard to go against the minor premiers in Adelaide after a week’s rest. Plus they beat the Cats recently.

However, there’s no value. The Crows are giving a three goal head start in an elimination final against the second best home and away team. Plus, the Cats have only lost to Adelaide once in the last seven contests.

Patrick Dangerfield thrives on the big stage and will be kicking multiple goals, we’re confident that Mitch Duncan continues his exceptional season in the middle. If Geelong can bring their tackling pressure and the Selwoods perform their roles, then Geelong have the match winners to steal a grand final birth.

It’s hard to criticise Adelaide but there’s more upside in Geelong at the start. The Betfair Model agrees.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong +16.5

Richmond Tigers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants

Saturday September 23, 4:45pm AEST – MCG

We’re surprised Richmond aren’t shorter. They have a comprehensive advantage at the MCG. The Tigers have won 10 of 12 there this year, with their last loss coming at the hands of the rampaging Swans in round 13. The Giants, meanwhile, barely play at the MCG and are 1 from 11 in their club’s history. That’s a damning statistic that shouldn’t be overlooked.

Plus Richmond will be full of confidence this week. Not only because they dominated Geelong in the second half, but they recently beat the Giants by 19 points. The contest before that, in Sydney, was a three point loss that arguably should have been theirs. Richmond kept the Giants to an average of 61 points across the two games, showing just how defensively strong this Tigers team is, particularly against the Giants.

With the Giants missing Shane Mumford and Jeremy Cameron and a huge home ground advantage, we have to go with the Tigers. We’re expecting Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin to lead the way with Richmond running away from a low scoring contest.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Richmond -9.5

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