Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans

Friday September 15, 7.50pm AEST – MCG

The market has been one way for Sydney and it’s easy to see why. The Swans are on a four month period of dominance, while the Cats were 51 points worse than Richmond last week

Current form is all Swans, and what’s concerning for Geelong, recent history belongs to them as well. John Longmire’s team have won five of the last six by an average margin of 54 points. The Cats have struggled to score, barely managing nine goals in the losses. Plus the most recent contest was at Simonds Stadium in round 20 and the Swans won by eight goals.

Apart from this semi-final taking place in Melbourne, it’s difficult to mount a case for Geelong. However, one factor that should slow the Swans down is the weather. Yr are forecasting significant rain throughout Friday.

The current three goal line feels too big in those conditions, so we’ll be hoping that the forecast influences the market and we can take -16.5 at close to $2.

We’ll also be keeping an eye on prop markets that offer value on Geelong scoring less than ten goals or on large Sydney winning margins that defy the weather.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney -16.5

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs West Coast Eagles

Saturday September 16, 7:25pm AEST – Spotless Stadium

Like the wider football community, we’ve been waiting for the Giants to find peak form for the last four or five months. They haven’t. Their injury list hasn’t allowed them to.

Thanks to Jeremy Cameron and Shane Mumford being ruled out for the season, we’ve finally lost faith. Cameron is their best key forward and Mumford is as critical to intent and finals attitude as he is to centre clearances. With their spine broken we can’t see why they’re not at least double their premiership odds.

The Eagles could get them this week. They travel without expectation and carry the motivation of it being the last final series for multiple AFL champions. Plus the Eagles won at Spotless late last year.

We like the potential matchups for West Coast too. Mark Hutchings to Josh Kelly, Andrew Gaff vs Tom Scully, Josh Kennedy vs Phil Davis, Elliot Yeo vs Toby Greene and Luke Shuey vs Dylan Shiel. With Jeremy McGovern dominating down back.

We like West Coast at the line.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -16.5

Betting Strategy

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