Adelaide vs Richmond

Saturday September 30, 2:30pm AEST – MCG

If you do a head to head comparison of the 22 players from each team, you’d agree with the Betfair Model’s pricing. Adelaide would be $1.55, or shorter, for the 2017 Grand Final.

Talia, Laird and Lever represent the perfect modern defensive blend of spoiling, intercept marking and offensive rebounding, and the Crows only get stronger up the field. Jacobs, Sloane and the Crouch brothers are elite and the forward line is the AFL’s best. All of that talent makes it unsurprising that Adelaide kicked 40 more goals than the second best team in the regular season. They’re also undefeated when they score 100 points or more.

The Tigers learnt first-hand how offensively talented the Crows are, and that it’s unwise to engage in a shootout. They kicked six first quarter goals in the round six contest at Adelaide Oval, only to concede 140 points and lose by 76.

Thankfully for Richmond, they’ve come a long way in five months and are now one of the premier defensive teams. We’d argue that they’re the league’s best. They conceded the third least points in the regular season and conceded 100 or more less than any other team (twice). In the two finals, they’ve conceded a miserly 40 and 67 points.

So this grand final is a classic contest of offense vs defence and it’s why the match odds are much tighter than the Betfair Model’s. The current game total is in for 172 points, acknowledging Richmond’s defensive pressure, as well as the occasion.

What’s Concerning for the Crows? They’ve only won three out of nine when they scored less than 100 points. If Richmond can continue their finals pressure, they’re an enormous chance of an upset. Additionally, they’re 11 and 13 at the MCG.

We like Tigers to shut the game down early and pounce in the second half.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Richmond +6.5

Norm Smith Medal

Sam Jacobs has been a huge mover on the Exchange, shortening from $32 to $21, reflecting his dominant performance in the last matchup. However, we’re looking for a game winning Tiger.

Dustin Martin is overpriced at $6 (remembering that he’s polled 11 best on ground’s this Home & Away season), if you can be sure that the Crows take him on offensively and assign their primary defensive stopper (Riley Knight) to Trent Cotchin.

The bolter or best value appears to be Kane Lambert. He was one of the Tigers best in their round six loss to the Crows, and has been a stand out in the finals so far. Whether he stops Rory Laird or finishes with 25 and a goal, his one on ones will make him stand out during a tight contest.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Dustin Martin at $5+

BACK – Kane Lambert at $50+

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