Read Betfair’s AFL Finals teams to watch plus futures betting tips for the 2022 AFL Finals series with AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Get his predictions and outright betting strategies for top 4 and top 8 contenders, including thoughts on Essendon, Richmond and Port Adelaide. AFL Finals betting tips and more are online now!
Click here to view the 2022 AFL futures betting markets on the Betfair Exchange.
AFL Finals | Top 4 Tips & Predictions | Teams to Watch | Futures Betting
1. Brisbane Lions
The Lions may have snuck into the 4th place in the final moments of Round 23, however this year they pose as genuine Premiership threats. Their percentage of 133 was the best in the AFL in 2021, and a full season out of a fit Lachie Neale will have them well placed for a 4th straight season with a double chance.
2. Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide finished 1st and 2nd in the last 2 seasons, but history suggests they’re the most likely to fall. Port were the best team at winning close games, with a 4-0 record in matches decided by a goal or less.
For the past 5 seasons, the team with the best record in close games struggled to replicate this. All of these sides slid down the ladder by an average of 5 places.
| TEAM | RECORD IN CLOSE GAMES | LADDER POSITION | FOLLOWING YEAR CLOSE GAME RECORD | FOLLOWING YEAR LADDER POSITION | |
| 2020 | Brisbane Lions | 3-0 | 2ND | 1-2 | 4TH |
| 2019 | GWS Giants | 5-0 | 6TH | 2-1 | 10TH |
| 2018 | Hawthorn | 4-0 | 4TH | 2-2 | 9TH |
| 2017 | Geelong | 4-1-0 | 2ND | 2-3 | 8TH |
| 2016 | Hawthorn | 5-1 | 3RD | 1-1-1 | 12TH |
AFL Finals | Top 4 Betting Strategy | Tips & Predictions
BACK: Brisbane Lions
BACK: BACK: Melbourne
Hard to go past the reigning Premiers, their age bracket suggests they should contend for the next few years.
LAY: Port Adelaide
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AFL Finals | Top 8 Tips & Predictions | Teams to Watch | Futures Betting
1. Richmond
The Tiger army will be confident on their return to September footy based on 1 word alone… Dusty. Dustin Martin is returning from his kidney injury and is ready to tear up through the midfield once again. Full seasons out of Prestia, Lambert, Nankervis and Vlaustin as well as the acquisition of Tarrant down back should push the Tigers up the ladder.
2. West Coast
Fell off a cliff after the bye with a 2-7 record and percentage of 73%, including losses to Collingwood and North Melbourne. Their game plan looked stale despite a squad that boasted 10 All Australians. Had no luck this pre-season, starting the season without Darling, Shuey, Sheed, Yeo, Allen, Cole and Cripps!
3. Geelong
Dangerfield, Selwood, Hawkins, Cameron, Stewart, Guthrie and Smith. There’s no way this list of names won’t be playing finals footy. Didn’t play like a top 4 team in the finals last year, but they’ll always find a way to contend. Coach Chris Scott records an unmatched 72%-win rate in home and away matches.
4. Essendon
The Bombers have yo-yoed in and out of the finals for the past 5 years. After copping one of the hardest draws in 2022, this trend looks set to continue. Over the last 10 seasons, 12 sides that lost the elimination final didn’t play finals the following year. Essendon could be the 13th.
AFL Finals | Top 8 Betting Strategy | Tips & Predictions
BACK: Geelong
LAY: West Coast
BACK: Richmond
BACK-TO-LAY: Carlton
Could be the year everything finally clicks! Teams tend to surge when a new coach comes in (Essendon 2021, St Kilda 2020, Western Bulldogs 2015), and Michael Voss is eager to take them up the ladder.
$3.00 is a big price, and could shorten significantly when Walsh comes back into the side. The inclusions of Cerra and Hewett shouldn’t be undervalued either.
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