Newcastle v Melbourne City

Friday 27th April 7:50pm – McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Overview

In 17 Preliminary finals in 90 mins the results have been Home 13 Draw 3 Away 1. Of the 3 draws the home team has advanced twice. Since the new finals format was introduced in 2012/13 the home team have won 10 from 10 in 90 minutes holding the away team scoreless in 7 of the 10 matches. Therefore only 2 Away teams have advanced to the Grand Final. At 2.5 goals there has been 11 under and 6 over. In the 10 matches in the new system there has been 5 under and 5 over.

The Jets have limped into the finals having won just 1 of their last 4 matches, that being the 8-2 thumping of Central Coast 2 weeks ago. Prior to that they had lost 0-2 at home to Perth, 0-3 at home to City and 2-5 away to Adelaide. It must be noted that they beat Sydney back in Round 22, so it hasn’t been all bad. That final round match was nothing more than a training run and now they have had the week off I fear that they will start very slowly. They haven’t had much to play for recently having secured 2nd spot long ago so that could explain their poor form but their dip in form has also coincided with the departure of Andrew Nabbout to Japan.

City disposed of Brisbane Roar at home 2-0 in the Elimination final without much fuss. In fact, they didn’t concede a single shot on target. They will be hoping that Captain Michael Jakobsen will return, and he is the only injury worry. They have lost their final round match but that was a dead rubber in Wellington. Prior to that they had won 3 in a row.

Head to head results this season:

  • R9: Newcastle 1 City 2
  • R18: City 1 Newcastle 1
  • R25: Newcastle 0 City 3

Key Statistics

  • Newcastle have won 8 of 14 home games losing 4 and drawing 2. 9 of 14 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle at home have scored an average of 1.9 goals per match (2nd) from 14.9 (4th) total shots and 5.9 (2nd) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 31% of shots on target is ranked 8th.
  • Defensively Newcastle at home have conceded an average of 1.1 goals per match (3rd) from 10.5 (3rd) total shots and 3.5 (4th) shots on target.
  • City have won 6 of 13 away games losing 5 and drawing 2. 10 of 13 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively City away have scored an average of 1.6 goals per match (3rd) from 12.2 (3rd) total shots and 4.2 (4th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 38% of shots on target is ranked 4th.
  • Defensively City away have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (3rd) from 12.9 (3rd) total shots and 4.4 (4th) shots on target.

Verdict

History is against them, but City hold all the aces here. They are the team in form, have won in Newcastle twice this season and have the most dangerous player on the field in Bruno Fornaroli to convert any half chances. History will be broken and for the first time since this new system began in 2012/13 the away team will go through.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne City at 2.2+ for 2 units

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 28nd April 7:50pm – Allianz Stadium

Match Overview

In 17 Preliminary finals in 90 mins the results have been Home 13 Draw 3 Away 1. Of the 3 draws the home team has advanced twice. Since the new finals format was introduced in 2012/13 the home team have won 10 from 10 in 90 minutes holding the away team scoreless in 7 of the 10 matches. Therefore only 2 Away teams have advanced to the Grand Final. At 2.5 goals there has been 11 under and 6 over. In the 10 matches in the new system there has been 5 under and 5 over.

Sydney have the wood over Victory having won their last 6 regular season matches and of course last years Grand Final on penalties. Sydney will be at full strength and well rested after the weekend off and their final ACL match. In those last 7 matches Sydney has scored 11 goals to Victory’s 4 and Sydney have averaged 4.8 shots on target to Victory’s 2.7.

Melbourne Victory left it late coming from behind to win 2-1 v Adelaide thanks to Besart Berisha’s spectacular overhead winner in the 88th minute. It was a tight cagey match but one they probably deserved to win. That fill up in confidence may be just what Besart needs having been somewhat down on his incredible best of late.

Head to head results this season:

  • R1: Victory 0 Sydney 1
  • R18: Victory 1 Sydney 3
  • R27: Sydney 1 Victory 0

Key Statistics

  • Sydney have won 10 of 14 home games losing 1 and drawing 3. 11 of 14 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Sydney at home have scored an average of 2.6 goals per match (1st) from 14.3 (5th) total shots and 6.4 (1st) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 40% of shots on target is ranked 2nd.
  • Defensively Sydney at home have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match (1st) from 9.3 (1st) total shots and 3.2 (3rd) shots on target.
  • Victory have won 6 of 13 away games losing 5 and drawing 2. 7 of 13 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Victory away have scored an average of 1.4 goals per match (5th) from 11.4 (5th) total shots and 4.5 (3rd) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 31% of shots on target is ranked 7th.
  • Defensively Victory away have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match (2nd) from 16.3 (10th) total shots and 4.5 (5th) shots on target.

Verdict

Victory continue to let their opposition have too many chances when playing away from home. Sydney have been the best team in their recent head to head contests and have been clearly the best team for the last 2 seasons. Man for man I think they have Victory covered and whilst the price is short I think they represent value

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Back Sydney to win at 1.65+ for 2 units


Related Articles

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 22

The Melbourne Derby headlines week 22's fixtures in the A-League as The Analysts preview the weekends biggest clashes.

Read More

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 21

The Analysts take a look at three of the most interesting fixtures ahead of week 21 in the A-League, ...

Read More

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 20

The Analysts take a look at three of the most interesting fixtures ahead of week 20 in the A-League, ...

Read More