Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

Friday November 11, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide are winless to start to the season once again and the statistical markers that interest me are very similar. The question is can they turn it around again? It is obviously a very big if and the key variance is the depth of the squad. Last year they found Bruce Djite to get on a big run of goals, if Sergi Guardiola can fill those numbers than they are a chance.

Brisbane have started very strongly winning three on the bounce after being humiliated by the Jets when they just seemed completely jaded. I was expecting some issues to present post that match but they have done well to turn it around albeit with 2 home game and an away match vs Central Coast. Brisbane will be without Jamie Maclaren (International duty) in this match

Key Statistics

  • Adelaide have only once lost four home matches in a row in 2011/12
  • Comparative to last season (after 5 rounds) Adelaide defensively have conceded nine goals (v 11) have faced 16 shots (v 22)
  • Comparative to last season (after five rounds) Adelaide offensively have scored five goals (v 4) had 21 shots on target (v 17) and converted 20% of those (v 23%)
  • Jamie Maclaren has scored 37% of Brisbane’s goals (20/54) back to the start of last season
  • Comparative to last season (after five rounds) Brisbane defensively have conceded six goals (v 5) four of those v Newcastle and have faced nine shots (v 21), the nine shots a clear league best.
  • Comparative to last season (after five rounds) Brisbane offensively have scored five goals (v 10) from 17 shots on target (v 22) at a conversion rate of 29% (v 45%)

Betting Strategy

Adelaide are three from three over 2.5 goals this season but two of those went over in injury time.

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.0+ for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday November 12, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory lost 2-1 to Sydney last week despite having the best of the early chances. Besides the big win over Wellington they really have had a stuttering start to the season and need to improve drastically. On the plus side they have Captain Carl Valeri back for this match but lose Marco Rojas (International duty).

Western Sydney’s best two performances of the season have been on the road against Adelaide and Perth which given the new home surrounds at Homebush is none too surprising. Of the 10 goals they have conceded 2 have been from set pieces and five directly from errors so it could be argued the six points they have garnered so far could easily have been more.

Key Statistics

  • Victory had 16 total shots, seven on target and scored six goals v Wellington. Removing that game they have averaged just 1.25 goals per game 7.75 total shots per match, 2.25 shots on target per match
  • Victory have faced 23 shots on goal (v 12 last season) above the league average of 20.7
  • Western Sydney away from home in their last 16 matches have W7 D5 L4
  • Western Sydney have faced 24 shots on target (v 11 last season)

Betting Strategy

 BACK –Under 2.5 goals at 2.0+ for 1.5 unit

 LAY – Victory up to 2.4 for 1.5 units

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