Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Friday March 31, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

I doubted Adelaide last week and was made to pay with a clinical performance proving too much for the Mariners in Gosford. Baba Diawarra scored a double and showed the importance of his late season signing whilst Isais started and performed well in his first outing for some time. They have left their run too late but are certainly a far better team than the one from earlier in the season.

Perth have run into an injury crisis and slump at the worst time. They have picked up just one point from their last three and though the two losses in that sequence were to Victory and Sydney, they are really struggling at the back. From the last 21 shots they have faced they have conceded 12 goals 57% (league average 32%). This could be down to bad luck and revert to the mean or more likely the aforementioned injury issues in defence.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)AdelaidePerthLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.9 (7)2.1 (9)1.6
Shots Faced4.8 (6)5.8 (9)4.8
Clean Sheets (total)3 (5)1 (9)3.7
GC per SF0.39 (10)0.36 (6)0.32
OffensiveGF0.9 (10)1.8 (3)1.6
Shots On*3.7 (9)4.4 (8)4.6
S/On Conversion % *0.21 (9)0.37 (2)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Adelaide amazingly have better defensive credentials than Perth. They have improved, off a very low base, in attack also.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide at 2.1+ for 3 unit

Sydney FC v Melbourne City

Saturday April 1, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney won the Premiership plate were confirmed as Premiers Plate winners on Saturday night when the Victory failed to beat Brisbane. They celebrated in style Sunday afternoon in Perth with a resounding 3-0 win. They won’t lose focus here with a stated ambition to finish with the best possible regular season record and with no injury concerns and the return of Rhyan Grant and Danny Vukovic they are back to full strength.

Melbourne City were poor against Western Sydney. It is hard to put a finger on the reason why they are so inconsistent but they continue to struggle away from home in particular. They are missing Fernando Brandan in attack and will be hoping that Tim Cahill can lift them over the final few rounds.

 

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)Sydney FCMelbourne CityLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.3 (1)1.1 (2)1.4
Shots Faced2.3 (1)3.3 (2)4.2
Clean Sheets (total)6 (1)1 (6)1.8
GC per SF0.14 (1)0.33 (6)0.33
OffensiveGF2.2 (1)1.7 (4)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)5.44 (1)4 (5)4.1
S/On Converstion %0.39 (2)0.33 (4)0.33
Passes per Goal173273334

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Sydney continue on their merry way. City have averaged 12 shots and four shots on target away from home. However, in the four matches with genuine contenders they have managed just an average of nine shots and three on target. In their last five matches against Sydney they have averaged just 6.4 total shots and three on target

Betting Strategy

Unfortunately, a cow paddock awaits the teams so I am a little more circumspect however Sydney will be buzzing

 BACK – Sydney to win at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK – Sydney to lead at half time at 2.0+ for 1 unit


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