Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

Friday March 10, 7:50pm

Match Overview

Sydney were comfortable enough in their 1-0 win over the Victory last week. That result took them 11 points clear with five matches to go and depending on results this weekend they may finish the weekend with the Premiers Plate. They have drawn just two home matches and won the other 7 this season (they played one draw at the Neutral ANZ Stadium at Homebush). Both draws were 0-0, one in the Derby and the other in the days leading up to the FFA Cup final.

Danny Vukovic and Rhyan Grant were both selected in an extended 30-man Socceroos squad in midweek and will be looking for big performances.

Central Coast Mariners improved performances this season continued when they were somewhat unlucky to lose 2-3 at home to City last week. Once again, my notes for the match suggest an even match with individual mistakes handing goals to the opposition.

The three goals conceded were from a direct free kick when the keeper might have done better, an own goal and a penalty after a defensive mix-up. That penalty also saw Goal Keeper Paul Izzo sent off and he has been a standout performer for the team this season. Ivan Necevski is a very experienced replacement and up against the team with whom he spent so much time playing second fiddle he might be in inspired form. He will need to be.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)SydneyMarinersLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.5 (1)1.9 (10)1.47
Shots Faced3.3 (1)6.5 (10)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)12 (1)3 (7)4.8
GC per SF0.15 (1)0.29 (3)0.32
OffensiveGF2 (1)1.2 (8)1.47
Shots On*5.7 (1)3.1 (10)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.33 (3)0.3 (4)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Nearly the top rank in every key statistic I keep, Sydney are clearly superior. The Mariners can finish OK but struggle to produce or stop the opposition attacks. The last five results between the two teams has seen Sydney win 4-0, 3-2, 3-1, 4-1 with one match drawn 2-2.

Betting Strategy

The market has Sydney extremely short so it is tough to find value.

 BACK – Any Other Home Win in the Correct Score market at 2.5+ for 0.5 units

 BACK – Over 4.5 goals at 3.2+ for 0.5 units

Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory

Saturday March 11, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory lost 0-1 to Sydney last week when they failed to find a cutting edge for most of the match in trying conditions. That result saw the Premiers Plate slip from their grasp and given they are nine points clear of third they could be excused for being a little flat over the last few weeks of the season. James Troisi was recalled to the Socceroos extended squad midweek and has been in sparkling form all season.

Perth Glory shot themselves in the foot and really should have collected all three points from the high scoring 3-3 draw at Wellington last week. They will be desperate to win and give themselves a chance of finishing third of fourth and the home final that comes with that. Can they end their consistency and get on a run to fulfil that goal? Rhys Williams received a Socceroos call-up during the week. Ange must have missed to very poor defending on the second goal for the Phoenix last week. Perth are still missing Alex Grant, Shane Lowry and Brandon Wilson which leaves them vulnerable at the back.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryPerthLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.2 (2)1.8 (9)1.47
Shots Faced5 (5)5 (8)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)6 (2)3 (7)4.8
GC per SF0.25 (2)0.36 (8)0.32
OffensiveGF2 (2)2 (3)1.47
Shots On*1.7 (6)1.8 (3)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.4 (1)0.39 (2)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Offensively these teams are well matched. Defensively however the Glory have plenty of work to do. Perth have avoided defeat in their last four away matches to the Victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.0+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – Over 4.5 goals at 3.0+ for 1 unit


related articles

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 15

"Happy to be on Adelaide here particularly now that Johan Absalonsen is back in the team."

Read More

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 11

"I expect the Jets to nick it but am more confident in a few goals."

Read More

A-League Season 2017/18 – Week 10

"Sydney will be too strong in this one, but it may be tight and take some time."

Read More