Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Friday February 24, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Melbourne City may have been played back into form last week by an abject Wellington in their 5-1 win. That said three of the five goals were more the outcome of defensive errors rather than spectacular play and they also were the beneficiaries of an own goal. Still they did look more impressive. Perhaps those players returning from suspension realised they needed to lift their game.

Sydney FC were at times very good and at times quite poor in their derby loss to the Wanderers but it is hard to deny they should have had at least a point with some horrific refereeing decisions going against them. They will be smarting after losing their undefeated record and be looking to put that right this week.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)CitySydneyLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.4 (4)0.5 (1)1.5
Shots Faced6.5 (4)3.3 (2)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)2 (8)11 (1)4.2
GC per SF0.37 (9)0.15 (1)0.32
OffensiveGF1.8 (4)2.1 (2)1.5
Shots On*4.2 (8)5.6 (1)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.31 (4)0.34 (3)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Sydney continue to be the flagship though when I compare the first 10 matches v the last 10 they are slightly off from the ridiculously high standards. Before last week the same could be said of City’s attack. City have managed just one shot on target in each of the last two meetings with Sydney but managed 1-1 draws in each match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney Draw No Bet at 1.8+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 1.5 units

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Saturday February 25, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory look to have found their rhythm again after that mini-slump when they lost three matches in succession. It could be argued it was “only Central Coast” they beat last week, but that Mariners were coming off three straight wins, and whilst they basically handed the match to the Victory it was a good win nonetheless.

I took a set against Adelaide last week and perhaps handed them the wooden spoon a little early. However, they were shown up in midweek against Gamba Osaka, have a trip to China on the back of this match and now lose Isais again for up to five weeks.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryAdelaideLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.2 (2)1.9 (8)1.5
Shots Faced4.6 (5)4.7 (10)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)6 (2)4 (5)4.2
GC per SF0.26 (2)0.39 (10)0.32
OffensiveGF2.1 (1)0.8 (10)1.5
Shots On*4.4 (6)3.4 (9)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.4 (1)0.19 (10)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Victory are clearly superior to Adelaide across the board. Victory have completed the home/home double in five of their eight home matches (excluding derbies) this season. Adelaide have conceded the home/home double on away travels in four of their nine matches this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Home/Home in the Half Full Double market at 2.1+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – Victory to lead at Half Time at 1.8+ for 1.5 units


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