Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC

Friday January 2, 7:50pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Brisbane made it two wins on end after a barren 4 weeks’ prior with their 93rd minute 2-1 win over Western Sydney. Brisbane won through their first round qualification for the ACL on Tuesday in nothing more than a training gallop. The prize is a trip to Shanghai Shenhua just four days after this match. I expect some squad rotation for this match with a view to protecting some of their key players for that trip.

Sydney came from behind to beat the Victory in Melbourne. Once again they were at their clinical best strangling the Victory and pouncing even the slightest hints of errors. They are now 17 matches undefeated and that target of remaining so until the end of the season is starting to look more likely. The premiers plate is all but tied up but I don’t expect any let up from Sydney, in fact I think at some point they will be improved again once Bernie Ibini becomes a regular starter.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)BrisbaneSydneyLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.3 (2)0.5 (1)1.6
Shots Faced4.1 (3)3.2 (1)4.8
Clean Sheets (total)4 (3)10 (1)3.5
GC per SF0.32 (5)0.15 (1)0.32
OffensiveGF1.4 (6)2.4 (1)1.6
Shots On*4.7 (3)5.7 (1)4.5
S/On Converstion % *0.25 (7)0.38 (2)0.3

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Sydney are clearly the best team and statistically ranked as such. Brisbane have reasonable rankings also but are a clear margin behind Sydney in every key factor.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Sydney to win at 2.0+ for 3 units

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday February 4, 7:50pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Victory lost 2-1 to Sydney at Etihad but were in the match for the most part having led 1-0. They lost James Donachie to a red card which is a blow to their central defence. They have now lost 3 in a row which is a concern however they will lift for the derby.

City continued to stutter along losing 2-1 at Newcastle. Granted their travel delays would have contributed to their lethargic showing however it is something we have come to expect particularly, as noted last week, away from home.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryCityLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.4 (3)1.4 (3)1.6
Shots Faced4.8 (6)3.8 (2)4.8
Clean Sheets (total)4 (3)2 (6)3.5
GC per SF0.3 (3)0.38 (8)0.32
OffensiveGF2.3 (2)1.7 (4)1.6
Shots On*4.6 (5)4.6 (5)4.5
S/On Converstion % *0.42 (1)0.18 (6)0.3

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Where Victory had been converting at near 50% they have converted 2 of their last 12 shots on target (17%). There has been 17 over 2.5 goals and 4 under 2.5 goals in the 21 derbies.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Victory at 2.0+ for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units