Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar

Saturday January 21, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington are looking to make it 3 home wins in a week after beating Central Coast 1-0 and Victory 3-0. Their record since the departure of former coach Ernie Merrick reads P6 W2 D3 L1 and that loss, away to Perth, was a little unlucky. With the return of Vince Lia and Michael McGlinchey last week they are now basically at full strength.

Brisbane have only won 2 of their last 10 matches and those wins were against Adelaide and Central Coast (joint bottom of the league) and they have lost their last three. They would hope to have Brett Holman back this or next week which may give them a lift.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)WellingtonBrisbaneLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.3 (3)1.33 (3)1.5
Shots Faced4.2 (5)4.1 (4)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)6 (2)3 (4)2.7
GC per SF0.32 (4)0.33 (5)0.32
OffensiveGF1.2 (7)1.3 (6)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)5.3 (2)4.2 (7)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.2 (9)0.25 (7)0.3

Statistics Comment

Wellington rank second for shots on target but only ninth for conversion of same. Against Victory midweek they converted 3/7 (42%). At the league average of 30% conversion they would be scoring at 1.6 per match

Betting Strategy

The early trade has Brisbane as favourite but I think that is false. I have Wellington favourite in this match (2.22 to 100%)

 BACK – Wellington to win at 2.3+ for 3 units

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Saturday January 21, 8:00pm AEDT

Since a dire showing against Sydney FC in Round 11, Perth have drawn three and won one match. They could easily have won another couple of those matches. This improved form has coincided with the abandonment of the circus of using three rather than four defenders and the return from injury of Adam Taggart. They do lose Alex Grant and Rostyn Griffiths for this match but Dino Djulbic will slot back into the centre back and probably Nebosja Marinkovic to the midfield

Victory were on a fine run of six wins on the trot before being played off the park by Wellington on Tuesday. Easy to say now but perhaps the danger signs of that were there to see in their wins over Brisbane and Adelaide the previous two weeks. They will be without Jason Geria and Fahid Ben Khalfallah and are likely to rest other players given the have a Big Blue with Sydney to come on Australia Day next Thursday.

Team news will be of vital importance in this one.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)PerthVictoryLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded2 (9)1.3 (2)1.5
Shots Faced5.7 (9)4.5 (6)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)1 (7)4 (3)2.7
GC per SF0.35 (6)0.28 (2)0.32
OffensiveGF1.7 (3)2.3 (1)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.3 (5)4.3 (6)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.37 (3)0.47 (1)0.3

Statistics Comment

Perth need to stiffen up in Defence. Victory have the highest average of goals scored but need to up the chances or keep relying on the high conversion rate for goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 3.0+ for 1.5 units

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