Sydney FC v Melbourne City

Friday December 9, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

A repeat of the FFA Cup final nine days ago and another full blooded confrontation is expected. Both teams were well down on their normal passing accuracy in that match due to the intensity. Not as much at stake here but the high pressing of both teams will likely mean an ability to string together passes will be the exception rather than the norm.

Sydney eased their FFA Cup sorrows with a straight forward win over the Jets 2-0 which could have been 6 or 7-0. The exclusion of Bobo (as I suggested last week) and Filip Holosko for me made Sydney an even more effective team and I suspect they will again opt for Brosque up front.

City fought out an open 1-1 draw with Brisbane after resting a swathe of players. I expect them to revert to somewhere near their first 11 this week with Tim Cahill certain to start.

The match has been moved to ANZ Stadium at Homebush so is a neutral venue.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)WanderersSydneyLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.5 (5)0.5 (1)1.5
Shots Faced3.9 (3)3.3 (1)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)2 (6)11 (1)4
GC per SF0.39 (9)0.15 (1)0.32
OffensiveGF1.2 (7)2.2 (1)1.5
Shots On*4.5 (4)5.6 (1)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.22 (8)0.36 (1)0.29

Statistics Comment

Two very evenly matched teams however one other big statistic that I think is relevant. City away from home have played four matches with 37 total shots of which 14 have been on target. However 29 of the total and 13 of the shots on target came in their first two matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney for 1.5 units at 1.9+

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.9+

Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United

Sunday December 11, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane were arguably the better team in the 1-1 draw away to City last week, their fourth 1-1 draw in succession. They are strong at the back but struggling to convert chances. Brett Holman on the long-term injury list does not help although the return of Thomas Kristensen last week certainly made them a more rounded team.

Adelaide recorded their first win and with the lifted themselves off the bottom of the table (on goal difference). The win is probably what they deserved although they still had to rely on two top-drawer long distance strikes from Henrique so their finishing still needs to improve. Isais misses out suspended and he is a big loss for them to overcome although they are now back to near full strength.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)BrisbaneAdelaideLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.1 (2)1.4 (5)1.4
Shots Faced3.5 (3)3.8 (4)4.2
Clean Sheets (total)2 (4)2 (4)1.8
GC per SF0.31 (4)0.38 (8)0.33
OffensiveGF1 (7)1 (7)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4 (5)3.3 (8)4.1
S/On Converstion %0.22 (8)0.23 (7)0.33
Passes per Goal447405334

Statistics Comment

Two sound defensive teams who are misfiring somewhat in attack. Both teams will look to dominate possession and with a high ration of passes per goal for each this match may be a slow burner.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals for 2 units at 1.9+

 BACK – Draw for 0.8 units at 3.3+

 BACK – 1-1 correct score for 0.2 units at 7.0+

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