Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Saturday April 29th, 7:50pm AEST

Match Overview

Sydney had the week off to celebrate their final round win over Newcastle which coincided with the presentation of the Premiers Plate. They have been the best team by some stretch setting multiple records such as the most points (65) compiled in one season. Star midfielder Milos Ninkovic is an almost certain starter but may not be 100% after picking up an injury in their final round. Other than that Sydney look to have their first 11 all fit and ready to go.

Perth would have traveled to Melbourne thinking it would be a tough night against City and the pre-match money was all for City firming from around 2.1 into 1.7 to win the match. City however were never in it and Perth eased to a 2-0 win. Diego Castro was at his best but clearly the best player on the pitch was central defender Dino Djulbic and he will again need to be at his best if Perth are any chance of beating Sydney. Perth stayed in Melbourne till Thursday before heading up to Sydney to take the 10 hours travelling back and forth out of the equation.

Key Statistics (Rounds 19-27)

 Stats per match (rank)SydneyPerthLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.4 (1)2 (7)1.6
Shots Faced2.9 (1)4.7 (4)4.9
Clean Sheets (total)5 (1)2 (4)2.5
GC per SF0.15 (1)0.43 (9)0.32
OffensiveGF1.9 (5)2.4 (1)1.6
Shots On*5.4 (3)5.7 (2)4.6
S/On Conversion % *0.29 (7)0.39 (2)0.29

Statistics Comment

On face value Sydney’s offensive output has been down late in the season however they had the premiers plate wrapped up long ago and have still been clinical. Their defence remains incredibly strong.

Sydney have beaten Perth 4-1, 4-1 and 3-0 this season.

History

In A-League history there has been 15 preliminary finals. The higher ranked team (and home team) has a record of 11 wins in 90 mins, three matches have been drawn with all three going to penalties of which the home team won two and the away team one. There has been one solitary win for the lower ranked (away) team and that was in the first season back in 2005/06. Since this format was introduced for season 2012/13 there have been eight straight home wins, five of which have been a win to nil and five have been victories by two or more goals.

The median variance between first and fifth placed teams has been 13 points with a maximum variance of 22 points prior to this season. Perth finished 30 points behind Sydney this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney/Sydney half full double at 2.0+ for 1.5 units

 BACK –  Sydney -1.5 in the Asian handicap market at 2.0+ for 1.5 units

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Sunday April 30, 5:00pm AEST

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory struggled to get over the top of the Mariners to continue a poor finish to the season in which they managed just the two wins from their final six matches. They finished seven points clear of third and were virtually locked into second place through the latter part of the season so a drop off is explainable but not ideal. Coach Kevin Muscat has a filly fit squad to choose from.

Brisbane progressed on penalties over Western Sydney Wanderers after another Lang Park comeback in a finals match. They were on tired legs after a hectic schedule and the majority of their first 11 did not make the trip to Thailand for the ACL match played Wednesday night. After the season ending injury to Michael Theo, Jamie Young was injured in midweek and despite being named today in their 18-man squad the Roar are likely to have to play third choice goal keeper Tomislav Bilic. Matt McKay and Jack Hingert have been added to the squad. Matt McKay hasn’t featured for five weeks so it remains to be seen whether he starts or comes off the bench.

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryBrisbaneLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.8 (2)1.8 (5)1.6
Shots Faced5 (5)3.7 (2)4.9
Clean Sheets (total)4 (2)1 (9)2.5
GC per SF0.15 (2)0.48 (10)0.32
OffensiveGF1.1 (7)2.2 (3)1.6
Shots On*3.4 (9)6.2 (1)4.6
S/On Conversion % *0.32 (5)0.32 (6)0.29

Statistics Comment

Despite a poor run into the finals the Victory have still been very solid at the back even if the goals and chances have dried up. Brisbane’s offensive stats are skewed thanks to high scoring home wins over Newcastle (twice) and Wellington.

History

In A-League history there has been 15 preliminary finals. The higher ranked team (and home team) has a record of 11 wins in 90 mins, three matches have been drawn with all three going to penalties of which the home team won two and the away team one. There has been one solitary win for the lower ranked (away) team and that was in the first season back in 2005/06. Since this format was introduced for season 2012/13 there have been eight straight home wins five of which have been a win to nil and five have been victories by two or more goals.

The median variance between second and third placed teams has been three points with a maximum variance of 10 points prior to this season. Brisbane finished seven points below Victory this season.

Betting Strategy

An incredibly difficult match to call but the I am assuming Jamie Young does NOT play, even if he does we have the historical trends on our side. I’m happy to bet early as I envisage the Victory can only firm from here.

 BACK –  Victory at 1.75+ for 1.5 units (if Young doesn’t play take 1.5+ for 2.5 units).


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