Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers

 

Friday April 21, 7:50pm AEST

 

Match Overview

Brisbane got over the top of Wellington last week after trailing 1-3 at half time. It was a performance that was hard on the eye and they had to thank some sublime long-range finishing and some dire Wellington defence for the turnaround. Not exactly the optimum lead in to an elimination final but we know they are a championship team. Jamie Maclaren who would have finished with the Golden Boot outright but for a missed penalty last week will need to be at his lethal best in a match that may see few chances.

Brisbane will miss Matt Mckay but welcome back Jade North and Corey Brown to strengthen up their defence.

Western Sydney rested the majority of their first 11 but were still strong enough to fight back from 0-2 at Adelaide to draw 2-2. They have been one of the big improvers over the final third of the season and can count on a fully fit squad ahead of this match.

These teams played off in an extraordinary semi-final last season. Brisbane roared out to an early 3-0 lead only to fall behind 4-3 before a late equaliser sent the match to extra time where Dario Vidosic grabbed the winner for the Wanderers.

 

Key Statistics (Rounds 19-27)

 

 Stats per match (rank)BrisbaneWanderersLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.8 (5)0.9 (3)1.6
Shots Faced3.7 (2)3.9 (3)4.9
Clean Sheets (total)1 (9)4 (2)2.5
GC per SF0.48 (10)0.23 (3)0.32
OffensiveGF2.2 (3)1.3 (6)1.6
Shots On*6.2 (1)4.7 (5)4.6
S/On Conversion % *0.32 (6)0.33 (3)0.29

Statistics Comment

 

Brisbane have been conceding at a remarkable rate of nearly one goal for every two shots faced over the last third of the season. This suggests they have been allowing too many high quality chances. They have scored plenty of goals themselves but worryingly for them they are over-performing in goals from outside the area at a ratio of 2.3:1 (inside:outside) compared to a league wide average of 5.9:1.

The Wanderers have steadily improved in all stats as the season had worn on. They are still below average in the number of goals scored but strong defensively.

History

 

In knockout finals where Third had played Sixth, Third (also the home team) has won five from seven with two draws. The away team has only progressed once on penalties back in 2009/10

Including three Grand Finals Brisbane have never lost a playoff match (one or two legged) at Lang Park winning six in normal time, one in extra time and one on penalties.

This is the first time the Wanderers have played an away semi-final having lost two Grand Finals on the road.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 2 units

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

 

Sunday April 23, 7:00pm AEST

 

Match Overview

These two teams met in a ridiculous encounter last week with Perth winning 5-4 at home. Remarkably that takes the number of goals scored between these two teams in their last seven encounters to 40.

Melbourne City always dominate possession against the Glory but they seem to have no answer to the Perth counter attack lead by Diego Castro.

It is very hard to see anything different happening in this match.

City are close enough to full strength whilst Perth will definitely be looking forward to welcoming back Joseph Mills to the left side of defence

 

Key Statistics (Rounds 19-27)

 Stats per match (rank)CityPerthLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded2.1 (8)2 (7)1.6
Shots Faced5 (5)4.7 (4)4.9
Clean Sheets (total)2 (4)2 (4)2.5
GC per SF0.42 (8)0.43 (9)0.32
OffensiveGF2.3 (2)2.4 (1)1.6
Shots On*5.3 (4)5.7 (2)4.6
S/On Conversion % *0.33 (3)0.39 (2)0.29

Statistics Comment

 

Very similar statistics over the last third of the season with both scoring plenty whilst conceding at high rates. Of course, this is skewed by last week’s result but we can’t ignore that either. Over the entire season city have been more defensively sound than Perth whilst maintaining a similar attacking point

History

 

In knockout finals where fourth has played fifth the home team has won four with the away team two and one draw (home team advanced on penalties).

In five away finals including one Grand Final Perth have not won in 90 mins, drawing three times and losing twice. They have progressed once by virtue of penalties. This is just the second finals match hosted by City after last years 2-0 win over Perth.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.0+ for 1.5 units

 

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 4.5 goals at 3.1+ for 0.5 units

 

Back on Betfair BACK – City at 1.9+ for 1 unit