The Track

The track is currently a Good 3 and while it’s forecast to be a mild 20-21c on Saturday, there is minimal chance of any rain. We expect the track to race evenly with race pace a more critical factor.


Speed and Tactics

There are a couple of potential scenarios here. If ridden aggressively by Craig Williams, Gratwick could cross them from Barrier 8 to lead. Alternatively Hard Promise (5) and / or Benz (4) and / or Into Orbit (3) could show intent to control the race. Depending on how that plays out, the pace is likely to be anywhere from below average to average in this race

Early Pace Rating: Below average to average

Late Pace Rating: Above average to below average

Best Suited: On lead to 3 lengths off the lead.


WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Looking at the lead up form into this race, we expect the winner will need to run to at least a 94 WFA Performance Rating at the weights being carried.


Race Assessment

2. BENZ: FORECAST 93 - 94. ASSESSED $4.40

He appeals a good value bet in this race. He’s first up here, but has trialled nicely in Adelaide and showed his talent early last preparation when stringing three wins together. The latest of those wins was a victory over the smart Ken’s Dream where he sat outside a solid pace and showed great fight up the straight to win in strong overall speed figures. Anything close to that run would make him very hard to beat in this race and from Barrier 4 he looks likely to get an ideal run either on the lead or just off.

3. DERRYN: FORECAST 91 - 98. ASSESSED $4.60

He’s a difficult horse to assess here because on his best form from last preparation he’s certainly the best horse in this race. First up in the Manfred he wasn’t at all suited by a very slow pace up front, but he just ran home with the pack and didn’t do enough to distinguish his finishing effort enough from the others to say that he’s come back at his absolute best. That leaves a slight query for us here, although we certainly have to respect his talent. It wouldn’t surprise at all if he won, but it’s impossible to see any betting value.

4. GRATWICK: FORECAST 92 - 97. ASSESSED $6

He might be well into his prep, but he went to a new peak last start winning at Moonee Valley in particularly good figures that stacked up very well on the day. A repeat of that performance puts him right in the finish here as a likely winner and while he may regress to a lower mark, he is from the Weir stable and he can get these types of horses (more than other trainers) to suddenly hold form at a new level. With that in mind and the fact he’s $8+ in the market, we see enough appeal to be on him.

5. INTO ORBIT: FORECAST 92 - 93. ASSESSED $8

Three career runs so far have been solid and was beaten 0.8L in the Manfred last start after having every chance leading at a very slow pace. He needs to find at least a +1L new career peak to challenge for a win in this race and while that’s not impossible, we have to prefer others, especially given his much shorter market price.

8. YULONG YONGXING: FORECAST 91 - 93. ASSESSED $9

Should have won easily last start but for plenty of bad luck in running. He needs to run to a clear new peak here, but getting deeper into his prep (Weir) and stepping up to 1200m with D Lane riding is a nice scenario to do that. He’s not hopeless.

10. APIATA: FORECAST 90 - 92 ASSESSED $19

Fist up here and looks the best longshot in the race. First up last prep he was 2.2L behind Benz in a particularly strong rating race where he beat Kens Dream. A similar run here could be very competitive in this race, which may be won in a lower standard than that form reference.

1. PEACOCK: FORECAST 89 - 92 ASSESSED $26

Have always felt he’s an overrated Colt and happy to continue with that opinion after potting him last start in our Autumn Stakes Preview, where he ran sixth of eight at single figure odds

7. HARD PROMISE: FORECAST 89 - 91 ASSESSED $26

Had excuses last start and is definitely better suited back to 1200m, but his best is still comfortably short of this level.

6. VIOLATE: FORECAST 89 - 91 ASSESSED $26

First up here and does have 1400-1600m figures that could be competitive, but he’s likely to need this run first up.


Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Benz at $4.60+ – Stake 1% of your total bank

 BACK (WIN) Gratwick at $6.50+ – Stake 0.5% of your total bank


related articles

Race Assessment: ATC Sires Produce Stakes 2016

"There’s really only one horse to back here and that’s Yankee Rose. She has dominant ratings, scope to improve, ...

Read More

Race Assessment: ATC Oaks 2016

"The Vinery Stakes looks the right form line here and we’re keen on those with the improvement profile that ...

Read More

Race Assessment: AJ Scahill Stakes

"This looks a decent betting race with two of the top-rated horses on recent form also likely to be ...

Read More