Champions League 2017/18 – Semi Final (Leg One) Analysis

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

Thursday April 26, 4:45 AEST

Real Madrid stuttered through their second leg with Juve to reach this stage, but while they’re still on course for a fourth Champions League title in five seasons, the late drama at the Bernabeu masked what has been a disappointing season for Zidane’s charges to date. His opposite number Jupp Heynckes is seeking a second treble with Bayern and holds a good record in this competition versus top-five ranked sides, winning four of five unbeaten home matches since 2011/12, while despite the visitors’ exploits in recent seasons Los Blancos are only W2-D1-L3 against the same level of opposition during this period in 1st leg knockout ties.

Bayern have been in sensational form at the Allianz Arena this term, emerging victorious in 18 of 21 unbeaten fixtures across all competitions and so should hold no fear of this Real side that lacks the same strength in depth as the last couple of seasons. The Bavarians have won four of six home games against Europe’s top five since 2014/15, netting an average of two goals per game, though they only kept one clean sheet across these and with Madrid’s firepower both teams should find the net. With that in mind Bayern & both teams to score appears the standout selection, especially as in Lewandowski the hosts have a goal machine with an impressive past record of six goals in as many games against Real.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bayern Munich Win/ Both Teams To Score at $3.50

 

Liverpool v Roma

Wednesday April 25, 4:45 AEST

Roma took advantage of a below par Barcelona performance to squeeze into the semi-finals but they’ve consistently delivered the goods on home turf in Europe this term, but been poor travelers as they’ve suffered three defeats from five games with their sole triumph at lowly Qarabag in the group stages. Having shipped 11 goals in these other four trips against sterner opposition, they have reason to fear a razor sharp Liverpool attack that should find itself presented with plenty of opportunities.

Indeed, the Reds netted 10 times across their knockout ties with Porto and Man City, while at Anfield they’ve piled on the goals with an average of 2.8 per game over their last 12. However, despite a recent run of clean sheets at the back they’ll struggle to keep this Roma side at bay, with Di Francesco’s men only failing to find a way past the virtually impregnable Atletico Madrid either home or away in Europe this term. In fact, they’ve found the net in 10 of their last 11 on their travels across all competitions, and with that in mind Liverpool & both teams to score appears a solid play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win/Both Teams To Score at $2.39


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