FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: SURROUND STAKES

Racing tips and betting strategy for Saturday’s Group 1 Surround Stakes are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Surround Stakes at Randwick with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.

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SURROUND STAKES racing tips

Track: Randwick | Distance: 1400m | Condition: 3YOF SW | Rail Position: True | Condition: Heavy 9 | Prizemoney: $500,000 

Rain forecast for Friday & Saturday. Difficult to predict how the track will end up, but likely to be anywhere between a Soft 6 and a Heavy 9.

Won in recent years by high quality G1 fillies including Probabeel, Nakeeta Jane & Shoals.

Historical Profiling (last 6 years):

  • 1st up (3), 2nd up (2), 3rd up (1)
  • 14-35 days break (3), 42-day break (1), 91-105 days break (2)
  • Barriers 1-6 (6)
  • Settled 1st-2nd (2). Settled 6th-9th (4)
  • Last 4 winners were all G1 mile winners/placed previous prep

SPEED MAP RACING TIPS

Above average speed expected here with the big field. I’m Divine, Tilianam & Hinged could be setting the pace.
Sweet Ruby, Never Been Kissed, Shihonka, Larkspur Run, Four Moves Ahead & Yearning jostle for midfield positions. Espiona, Zouzarella, Heresy, Jamaea, Fangirl & Ringarosa settle worse than midfield. Von Trapp, Hope In Your Heart & Startantes settle out the back.


KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS

1. Yearning

Ran 2nd in the G2 Edward Manifold before winning the G1 Thousand Guineas at next start last prep. That mile G1 form has won the last 5 editions of this race so must be respected. First up here but this race has been won by first up performers previously.

2. Never Been Kissed

Won the G1 Flights Stakes at 4th start before running 2nd in the G1 Spring Champion. First up here but trained by Gai so will be fit enough. Can win.

3. Fangirl

3yo Sebring filly trained by Waller. Settled midfield and wide but ran home well for 2nd beaten a nose in good time Rosehill May 21 895m trial +1.2/+1.4. Then very slow away and worked home solidly for 3rd in Rosehill 900m June 4 trial. Is slow out of the gates which is a concern. Missed the start on debut at Canterbury and should have won but was blocked in the straight. Was slow away first up at Gosford and flew home for 3rd, then bolted in by 5L at Goulburn. Backed her to win the Flight Stakes & Thousand Guineas at 100/1 in Futures and she didn’t run in either! Instead, she won impressively at Randwick over 1400m in Listed grade, then won the G3 Carbine Club at Flemington by 3.3L beating the boys running the 2nd quickest last 600m of the day +5.2 last 600m. Won the Light Fingers first up over 1200m and is only going to get better up to 1400m here.

5. Hinged

Ran 2nd in the G1 Flight Stakes last prep which is the mile G1 form desired for this race. Came from well back to finish 7th in the G2 Light Fingers first up in a good first up run. Strong chance.

7. Espiona

3yo filly by Extreme Choice trained by C Waller. Won Rosehill 900m June 4 trial finishing strongly under little pressure from well back, flying home to beat Group performers Fangirl & Ducky Of Savoy, running the 5th quickest last 200m of the day. Then won Rosehill 900m 28 Sep trial running +7.9 the last 600m, the 4th quickest last 600m of the day under a hold. Bolted in to win at Warwick Farm on debut +8.2 last 400m, the quickest last 600m, 400m and 200m of the day. Then bolted in at Flemington over 1400m in listed grade by 6.5L, +10.5 last 800m, 1st or 2nd quickest for every single sectional from the 1000m mark down. Ran 2nd first up when ridden a bit too close. Looks a future superstar and is the one to beat here.

8. Startantes

Ran 3rd in the G1 Flight Stakes last prep, and was only beaten 3L in the G1 Golden Rose. Came from well back to finish 6th in the G2 Light Fingers first up, but ran +5.2 for the last 600m, the 6th quickest last 600m of the day.


SUMMARY

A G1 mile win/placing in the Spring has found the winner of this race the past 5 years. Despite rating Espiona & Fangirl on top, they do not have G1 mile form from last prep, and are the two short priced favourites. Hence we will save on them. I am backing Hinged, Yearning, Never Been Kissed and Startantes at big odds to beat them.


TOP 5 SELECTIONS

7 – Espiona
3 – Fangirl
5 – Hinged
1 – Yearning
2 – Never Been Kissed


BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) — Hinged for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Never Been Kissed for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Startantes for 0.2 units

BACK (WIN) — Fangirl for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Espiona for 1 unit

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RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 232.9
Returned: 257.9
Profit On Turnover: 10.7%

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