Racing tips and betting strategy for Saturday’s Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.
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BLUE DIAMOND STAKES racing tips
Track: Caulfield | Distance: 1200m | Condition: Set weights | Rail Position: +3m Entire | Track Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,500,000
No rain forecast. 23-24 degrees forecast for Thursday/Friday, and 27 degrees for Saturday. Track should play well and remain a Good 4. Fence may not be the place to be on Saturday, but that gives the vast majority of horses their chance and is substantially better and fairer than the alternative at Caulfield when the fence is on fire and only a handful of runners in each race can win.
Won in recent years by some top 2yos including Artorius, Lyre, Extreme Choice, Earthquake & Samaready.
FACTS (IN THE LAST 10 YEARS):
- Seven winners have backed up after a 14-day break. Only one winner off a 21-day break and two winners off a 28-day break.
- Six winners have been second-up in their preparation. One winner was third-up and three have been fourth-up.
- Five winners settled in the first six in-running, while four settled 10th-12th.
- Colts and fillies have each won 5 times.
- Six winners had run twice prior in their career, while the remaining four winners had run 3 times.
- Seven winners ran over 1100m last start, two winners over 1000m and one over 1300m.
- Nine of the last 10 winners have run at Caulfield at least once.
- Eight of the last 10 winners won their previous start. The other two were beaten less than 2 lengths.
SPEED MAP RACING TIPS
Fast speed expected as is usually the case with these 2YOs.
English Riviera and Miss Roseiano look to dominate from the front, whilst Waltz on By and Semillion look to sit on their backs.
Kiki Express, Daumier, Counttheheadlights, Sebonack and Seven Sisters will be jostling for midfield spots.
Revolutionary Miss, Lofty Strike, Merchant Prince, Rampant Lion get back.
Flashing Steep, Jacquinot and Hafey all have very slow early speed and map at the rear.
KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS
Won the Inglis Banner on debut at Moonee Valley, then 2nd in the C&G Prelude last start. Wide gate but maps to get a nice run on the speed. Ideal from a historical profiling perspective, and strong trainer/jockey combo, but sectionals below others.
2. Lofty Strike (DOUBTFUL)
Won on debut at Flemington and then was impressive winning the C&G Prelude last start coming from the rear. Big striding horse with plenty of natural talent. 3rd up here a negative and trainer/jockey combo rarely seen at this level.
Won the C&G Preview on debut, then a solid 3rd last start in the C&G Prelude when stuck on the fence in inferior going. Blinkers on first time here. 3rd up a negative but strong trainer/jockey combo.
Won the Chairman’s on debut and Mcneil sticks with him here over Semillion. Historically this is a tough race to win at your second start, particularly coming off a 1000m run.
Won by 1.3L at Moonee Valley on debut over 1200m running +6 last 600m, then slow away and a solid 4th in the C&G Prelude when had every chance.
Won at Caulfield over 1200m impressively on debut running strong sectionals +4 last 800m, then missed the start and had excuses when 5th in the C&G Prelude. Will get a long way back but has a powerful finish. 3rd up and both runs at Caulfield slight negatives.
7. Rampant Lion
Solid 3rd on debut at Flemington, and then a solid 2nd in the C&G Preview. Tough to win this off a 1000m run.
8. Merchant Prince
Won at Pakenham over 1200m +5.9 first sectional, and then 2nd over 1300m +5 last 600m. Looks a class rise but on sectionals could measure up at odds. Roughie.
Won on debut at Bendigo over 1100m by 3.8L in +4.6 last 400m. Maher/Williams combination a positive. Only having second career start however.
11. Revolutionary Miss
Keeps improving with each run, and won Prelude coming from the rear +4.3 last 800m. Snowdens are excellent with 2yos and Kah a positive rider change as a boost. Excellent historical profile. Ticks every box.
12. Miss Roseiano
Speedy. Won the Fillies Preview over 1000m on debut +2.8 last 600m, then 2nd in the Fillies Prelude over 1100m beaten 0.6L.
13. English Riviera
Has plenty of early speed. Led and 2nd to Lofty Strike on debut at Flemington over 1100m, then led and 3rd in the Fillies Prelude over 1100m last start in a forgiveable run when stuck on the inferior going on the fence. Has the trainer/jockey combo to give this a shake.
16. Seven Sisters
Won at Geelong second start over 1100m +5.7, then got back and ran home strongly when 4th in the Fillies Prelude +3.4 last 400m. Blinkers first time here.
Revolutionary Miss ticks all the boxes and rates clearly on top.
Jacquinot & Daumier were both in the worst going last start and are big improvers.
Seven Sisters needs to find a couple of lengths to beat Revolutionary Miss, but profiles well at odds.
Merchant Prince looks the best roughie at huge odds.
TOP 5 SELECTIONS
11 – Revolutionary Miss
6 – Jacquinot
3 – Daumier
16 – Seven Sisters
8 – Merchant Prince
BACK (WIN) — Revolutionary Miss for 1.3 units
BACK (WIN) — Jacquinot for 0.5 units
BACK (WIN) — Daumier for 0.3 units
BACK (WIN) — Seven Sisters for 0.2 units
BACK (WIN) — Merchant Prince for 0.2 units
Units Outlayed: 232.9
Units Returned: 257.9
Profit On Turnover: 10.7%