FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING

Your feature race preview is online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, tips & betting strategy for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments. Only on the Betfair Hub.

BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES

Track: Flemington | Distance: 1000m | Condition: Weight-for-age | Rail Position: True | Track Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000

No rain forecast. 23 degrees forecast for Friday & Saturday. Track should play well and remain a Good 4or perhaps upgrade to Good 3.

Won in recent years by many of the best sprinters of the past decade, including Nature Strip, Gytrash, Redkirk Warrior, Terravista, Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee & Black Caviar!

FACTS:

  • Last 9 winners have been first up. Between 84-to-238-day break.
  • 5 of the past 7 winners ran in the VRC Sprint at their previous start
  • 7 of the past 10 winners of the race settled in the first 4.
  • Over the past 10 years – 4yo (2), 5yo (3), 6yo (3), 7yo (2)
  • Over the past 10 years – Gelding (6), Mare (4)

SPEED MAP

Plenty of speed engaged here. Eduardo likes to dominate from the front, and Profiteer will push to lead also. Home Affairs also pushes to lead and Nature Strip won’t be far away. The Astrologist & Swats That should settle midfield. Gytrash, The Inferno & Masked Crusader will settle out the back and be aiming to charge home over the top late.

 


KEY RUNNERS

1.Nature Strip

Champion sprinter with 8 G1s to his name. Won the Everest last prep, dual winner of the TJ Smith and VRC Sprint Classic. Won this race last year also. Bolted in to win the VRC Sprint Classic last start and that is the best leadup race for this event. Beat many of these comfortably winning a Flemington Feb 11 800m jumpout in 45.93. Hard to beat.

2. Eduardo

Has won all 3 fresh up runs for Joe Pride. Beat Nature Strip in his past two fresh up runs. 5 starts under 1200m for Joe Pride for 4 wins and a 2nd to Classique Legend. Was a close 3rd in the Everest then won next start before his spell. Record down the straight is a query although that was with previous trainer. Is an 8yo now. Is the key danger here however.

3. Masked Crusader

Has won past 2 fresh up runs, over 1200m and 1100m at G3 level. Ran 2nd to Nature Strip in the Everest and TJ Smith. Gets a long way back but has a powerful finish. Could find the 1000m a little short but will be hitting the line hard.

4. Gytrash

Won this race in 2020. Has mixed form of late. Tongue tie and synthetic hoof filler off are positives. Is excellent down the straight but need to see him get back to his best first. Take on trust.

5. The Inferno

Won the Macewen last prep over 1000m and then a close 2nd in the G1 Moir next start. Hasn’t run down the straight before but could suit his style. Will be getting a long way back however. Not out of it and is a big price.

6. The Astrologist

Has a consistent record down the straight, but rate best at 1100m-1200m and faces a class rise here

7. Swats That

Talented mare who races best down the straight. Ran 2nd in the VRS Sprint last start behind Nature Strip which is always the best leadup for this race. Can run a big race at odds.

8. Home Affairs

Destroyed them in the Coolmore last start winning by 3.3L in electrifying fashion and good time. 3yos often run close in this race, though find it tough to win. Won’t be far away

9. Profiteer

Speedster who will be in it for a fair way, but should find the pressure too much over the final furlong.                      


SUMMARY

Nature Strip ticks all the boxes and profiles clearly as the one to beat. Eduardo has an excellent fresh record over 1000m-1100m and must be respected. Saver. Swats That and The Inferno can sit off the hot speed and swoop at big odds if the top 4 speedsters up front chop themselves up.


TOP 5 SELECTIONS

1 – Nature Strip
2 – Eduardo
7 – Swats That
5 – The Inferno
3 – Masked Crusader


BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) — Nature Strip for 2 units

BACK (WIN) — Eduardo for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Swats That for 0.3 unit

BACK (WIN) — The Inferno for 0.2 unit


RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 229.9

Units Returned: 257.9

Profit On Turnover: 12.2%