2019 USPGA Championship: Expert Preview

The 2019 USPGA Championship has come around again, this time at Bethpage Black in New York.

Our Golf Analysts have once again given their in-depth, expert preview of the tournament. They discuss the course, in play trading opportunities, rated price and the best betting selections for the major.

Go where the value is for the PGA Championship on the Betfair Exchange.


Are you ready to master the Betfair Exchange this Golf Season?


Venue Name

Bethpage Black. New York, USA. 16-19 May 2019.


Course Details

The PGA Championship has now been moved to the month of May ongoing, as it was previously always played in August. The Bethpage Black Course is a public golf course at Bethpage State Park on Long Island, New York.

Opened in 1936, it was designed by noted golf architect A.W. Tillinghast, who was also responsible for the park’s Blue and Red Courses in the mid-1930s.

It is the most difficult of Bethpage’s five courses. Renowned in the past as a beast of a US Open course, Bethpage Black becomes one of the very few venues in America to host both the US Open and US PGA Championship.


Weather Report

Thursday – Partly Cloudy, 18 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Wind – 10mph, Humidity 63%

Friday – Partly Cloudy, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Wind – 9mph, Humidity 60%

Saturday – Cloudy, 20 degrees, Precipitation 20%, Wind – 10mph, Humidity 68%

Sunday – PM Thunderstorms, Precipitation 40%, Wind – 8mph, Humidity 72%


Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2018 B Koepka Tiger Woods
2017 J Thomas F Molinari, L Oosthuizen, P Reed
2016 J Walker J Day
2015 J Day J Spieth
2014 R McIlroy P Mickelson
2013 J Dufner J Furyk
2012 R McIlroy D Lynn
2011 K Bradley J Dufner
2010 M Kaymer B Watson
2009 Y.E Yang T Woods
2008 P Harrington B Curtis, S Garcia

Form at Event in the last 3 years

Player Current Odds Avg last 20 rounds Form Previous 12 months Average Past 3 Years
Tiger Woods 13 69.25 69.35 66.5
Dustin Johnson 12.5 68.65 68.7 69.75
Brooks Koepka 12.5 69.05 69.44 68.25
Rory McIlroy 13.5 68.8 69.3 70.38
Justin Rose 24 69.75 68.99 68.63
Jon Rahm 24 69.8 69.96 70
Justin Thomas 23 69.45 69.12 69
Rickie Fowler 25 69.95 69.44 69
Jason Day 29 69.45 69.6 68.58
Francesco Molinari 30 70.3 69.8 68.67
Xander Schauffele 32 69.95 70.49 69
Tommy Fleetwood 38 69.7 69.34 71
Tony Finau 46 70.5 69.52 70.63
Jordan Spieth 55 70.6 69.9 69.33
Bryson DeChambeau 46 71 69.65 71.75
Patrick Cantlay 50 69.65 69.9 70.13
Hideki Matsuyama 55 69.85 70.02 68.83
Adam Scott 65 69.5 70.42 69.5
Bubba Watson 65 70.2 70.38 70.25
Sergio Garcia 60 70.3 70.64 70.14
Henrik Stenson 75 70.2 69.62 69.5
Paul Casey 65 70.45 69.85 69.63
Gary Woodland 75 70.85 70.16 69.38
Matt Kuchar 75 69.8 70.46 70.75

Weighted Rankings

Player 5 – 3 – 1 Weighting 7 – 4 – 1 Weighting 3 – 2 – 1 Ranking 5 – 3 – 1 Ranking 7 – 4 – 1 Ranking
Tiger Woods 68.98 69.05 1 2 2
Dustin Johnson 68.79 68.76 2 1 1
Brooks Koepka 69.09 69.11 3 3 4
Rory McIlroy 69.14 69.1 4 4 3
Justin Rose 69.37 69.4 6 6 6
Jon Rahm 69.87 69.87 15 14 14
Justin Thomas 69.29 69.3 5 5 5
Rickie Fowler 69.67 69.7 8 8 9
Jason Day 69.4 69.43 7 7 7
Francesco Molinari 69.95 70 14 16 17
Xander Schauffele 70.02 70.05 17 18 18
Tommy Fleetwood 69.73 69.69 11 10 8
Tony Finau 70.19 70.18 25 24 24
Jordan Spieth 70.23 70.26 22 25 25
Bryson DeChambeau 70.63 70.61 41 39 37
Patrick Cantlay 69.79 69.77 13 11 11
Hideki Matsuyama 69.79 69.82 10 12 13
Adam Scott 69.81 69.81 12 13 12
Bubba Watson 70.27 70.27 26 26 26
Sergio Garcia 70.4 70.4 32 30 29
Henrik Stenson 69.93 69.95 16 15 15
Paul Casey 70.16 70.18 20 23 23
Gary Woodland 70.46 70.5 30 31 31
Matt Kuchar 70.13 70.1 24 21 20

My Rated Prices

Player My Odds
Tiger Woods 9
Dustin Johnson 11
Brooks Koepka 13
Rory McIlroy 15
Justin Rose 20
Jon Rahm 50
Justin Thomas 17
Rickie Fowler 26
Jason Day 23
Francesco Molinari 46
Xander Schauffele 60
Tommy Fleetwood 35
Tony Finau 100
Jordan Spieth 85
Bryson DeChambeau 180
Patrick Cantlay 42
Hideki Matsuyama 32
Adam Scott 38
Bubba Watson 100
Sergio Garcia 130
Henrik Stenson 55
Paul Casey 75
Gary Woodland 120
Matt Kuchar 95

Tiger Woods is the right price and it’s great to see him back on top in order of favoritism. In fact the market is very accurate in the top 5 players. They are almost identical with my price.

I am keen to find some value further down the list and look for players such as – Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama whom are value. Jon Rahm, Byson DeChambeau and Sergio Garcia are not.


In Play Trading Opportunities

Bethpage Black ranks as the 3rd toughest golf course in America according to Golf Digest, the brutal 10th and 5th hole could easily play the most difficult on statistics this year.

I want to be placing a lay bet on these holes if after day 1 the scoring averages on these holes are over par.

Assess the scores after day 1 morning, it is likely that someone finishing early on day 1 could well hold there position strongly on the leaderboard and therefore a back bet should be considered and a lay bet to be placed on this players before they commence their second round afternoon tee time.

Remember this is a tough golf course and depending on how the course is set up, this trade could be very useful. Scoring on the morning of day 1 will indicate how its going to play.


Pre Tournament Bets

LAY – Sergio Garcia for the Top 10 for 3 units.

LAY – Bryson DeChambeau for the Top 10 for 2 units.

LAY  – John Rahm for the Top 10 for 2 units.

 BACK – Adam Scott for the Top 20 for 2 units

 BACK – Hideki Matsuyama for the Top 20 for 2 units

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