2019 U.S. Open: Expert Preview

Venue Name

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula, CA. June 13-16, 2019

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Course Details

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a public golf course on the West Coast of the United States, located on the Monterey Peninsula, California. Widely regarded as one of the most beautiful courses in the world, it hugs the rugged coastline and has wide open views of Carmel Bay, opening to the Pacific Ocean.

In recent years the USGA has come under criticism that the course set up of the US Open has been bordering on ridiculous and that they are trying to replicate the British Open set-up. It would be great to see the US Open get back to its original high rough and narrow fairways, placing a premium on ball striking. It will be interesting how Pebble Beach plays this year!

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Weather Report

Thursday – Partly Cloudy, 18 Degrees, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 16mph, Humidity 78%

Friday – Partly Cloudy, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 16mph, Humidity 80%

Saturday – Cloudy, 16 degrees, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 18mph, Humidity 80%

Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 18mph, Humidity 77%

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Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year	Winner	Runner Up
2018	Brooks Koepka	Tommy Fleetwood
2017	Brooks Koepka	Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama
2016	Dustin Johnson	Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, Scott Piercy
2015	Jordan Spieth	Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen
2014	Martin Kaymer	Erik Compton, Rickie Fowler
2013	Justin Rose	Jason Day, Phil Mickelson
2012	Webb Simpson	Graeme McDowell, Michael Thompson
2011	Rory McIlroy	Jason Day
2010	Graeme McDowell	Gregory Havret
2009	Lucas Glover	Ricky Barnes, David Duval, Phil Mickelson

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Player	Avg Last 20 Rounds	Last Year Results	Avg Past 3 Years	My Average Weighting
Dustin Johnson	68.9	68.7	69.88	69
Rory McIlroy	69.25	69.3	72.41	69.8
Brooks Koepka	68.8	69.44	69.75	69.17
Tiger Woods	69.7	69.35	72.41	70.04
Jordan Spieth	69.5	69.9	72.25	70.09
Patrick Cantlay	69	69.9	73.75	70.09
Justin Rose	70.35	68.99	71.75	70.13
Rickie Fowler	70.25	69.44	71.13	70.12
Jon Rahm	70.5	69.96	71.75	70.53
Xander Schauffele	70.8	70.49	70.5	70.65
Justin Thomas	70.15	69.12	71.67	70.06
Hideki Matsuyama	69.95	70.02	70.75	70.11
Adam Scott	69.95	70.42	71.5	70.37
Jason Day	70.55	69.6	70.5	70.23
Tommy Fleetwood	70.15	69.34	69.88	69.83
Francesco Molinari	70.8	69.8	73	70.83
Phil Mickelson	72.3	70.1	74	71.85
Brandt Snedeker	70.3	70.38	72	70.61
Tony Finau	71	69.52	71.25	70.55
Webb Simpson	69.2	69.29	72	69.7
Matt Kuchar	69.2	70.46	71.63	70.02
Bryson DeChambeau	71	69.65	72.13	70.74
Paul Casey	70.65	69.85	72	70.61
Shane Lowry	70.6	70.75	71.25	70.76

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Player	Current Odds	My Rank	My Price
Dustin Johnson	10	1	9
Rory McIlroy	10	4	15
Brooks Koepka	10.5	2	11
Tiger Woods	14	8	26
Jordan Spieth	23	11	35
Patrick Cantlay	21	10	32
Justin Rose	30	14	46
Rickie Fowler	30	13	42
Jon Rahm	32	18	65
Xander Schauffele	30	23	90
Justin Thomas	36	9	29
Hideki Matsuyama	40	12	38
Adam Scott	38	17	60
Jason Day	40	15	50
Tommy Fleetwood	42	5	17
Francesco Molinari	48	30	120
Phil Mickelson	55	50	250
Brandt Snedeker	60	22	85
Tony Finau	65	20	75
Webb Simpson	55	3	13
Matt Kuchar	60	7	23
Bryson DeChambeau	75	26	100
Paul Casey	70	21	80
Shane Lowry	85	27	110

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In Play Trading Opportunities

• The second hole, if playing as a Par 4 like in 2010, could play as high as 4.50 average. This will be a great trading hole to place a lay bet on the tee and back bet after the hole is completed.
• The fifth hole has played the 5^th most difficult hole on the PGA Tour. Use the same trading strategy as listed above.
• The 8^th, 9^th and 10^th Hole has proven over time to be a very tough stretch. This will be my favorite trading strategy for the tournament this year. I will look at wind direction and scoring averages after day 1.
• The 12^th and 17^th are both difficult par 3’s. In fact in 2010 there was only one birdie in the final round from Tim Clark, and that was a holed bunker shot.

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Pre-Tournament Bets

Wait until Thursday night until liquidity comes into the Betfair pool before placing any bets.

LAY – Xander Schauffele for the Top 10 for 2 units.

LAY – Francesco Molinari for the Top 5 for 1 unit.

 BACK – Matt Kuchar for the Top 20 at 3.5 or better for 2 units.

 BACK – Webb Simpson for the Top 20 at 3 or better for 2 units.