2019 US Masters: Your Expert Preview for Augusta

It’s Masters time! The 2019 US Masters, which is played at the same venue every year, will be in outstanding condition as always and the flowers will be in full bloom.

Length is always an advantage at the Masters, and the past 16 tournaments have produced longer than average champions, with the exemption of Mike Weir, Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth. Tiger Woods believes the Par 5’s are still the key to playing Augusta well.

Zach Johnson proved that you don’t have to go for them in two, but you need to play them well. Pin locations on the Par 3 and Par 4’s can make them very difficult for easy birdies, therefore playing the Par 5’s well is imperative.

Check out the expert preview of the Masters from the Analysts. Go where the value is on the Betfair Exchange.

Are you ready to master the Betfair Exchange this Golf Season?

Weather Report

Augusta National, Atlanta, Georgia  

Thursday – 28 degrees, Mostly Sunny, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 49%, Wind 18km/h

Friday – 27 degrees, Rain, Precipitation 70%, Humidity 57%, Wind 19 km/h

Saturday – 28 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 39%, Wind 11km/h

Sunday – 27 Degrees, Scattered Thunderstorms, Precipitation 60%, Humidity 60%, Wind 19km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2008 Trevor Immelman Tiger Woods
2009 Angel abrera Chad Campbell, Kenny Perry
2010 Phil Mickelson Lee Westwood
2011 Charl Schwartzel Jason Day, Adam Scott
2012 Bubba Watson Louis Oosthuizen
2013 Adam Scott Angel Cabrera
2014 Bubba Watson Jonas Blixt, Jordan Spieth
2015 Jordan Spieth Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose
2016 Danny Willett Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood
2017 Sergio Garcia Justin Rose
2018 Patrick Read Rickie Fowler

History at the Event

Player Current Odds Avg last 20 rounds Last Year Results Average Past 3 Years
Rory McIlroy 8.4 68.15 69.3 71.08
Dustin Johnson 13 68.85 68.7 71
Justin Rose 15.5 69.9 68.99 70.83
Tiger Woods 18 69.9 69.35 72.25
Jon Rahm 20 69.6 69.96 71
Justin Thomas 24 68.95 69.12 72.67
Francesco Molinari 26 70.55 69.8 71.92
Rickie Fowler 24 70.05 69.44 70.13
Jordan Spieth 22 71.3 69.9 70.67
Paul Casey 32 69.75 69.85 71.17
Tommy Fleetwood 32 69.6 69.34 71
Brooks Koepka 32 70.7 69.44 72.5
Hideki Matsuyama 38 69.45 70.02 71.67
Bryson Dechambeau 46 70.25 69.65 73
Jason Day 44 69.55 69.6 72.08
Bubba Watson 42 70.1 70.38 72
Tony Finau 50 70.3 69.52 70.25
Phil Mickelson 60 70.4 70.1 72.5
Louis Oosthuizen 48 70.9 70.16 72.33
Xander Schauffele 55 69.1 70.49 74
Marc Leishman 65 70.45 70.26 72
Adam Scott 55 70 70.42 72.83
Matt Kuchar 60 70.15 70.46 72.08
Kevin Kisner 95 70.25 70.73 73.42

My Ratings

Player Current Odds My Odds
Rory McIlroy 8.4 9
Dustin Johnson 13 11
Justin Rose 15.5 17
Tiger Woods 18 38
Jon Rahm 20 23
Justin Thomas 24 13
Francesco Molinari 26 75
Rickie Fowler 24 20
Jordan Spieth 22 120
Paul Casey 32 32
Tommy Fleetwood 32 15
Brooks Koepka 32 85
Hideki Matsuyama 38 29
Bryson Dechambeau 46 60
Jason Day 44 26
Bubba Watson 42 65
Tony Finau 50 35
Phil Mickelson 60 100
Louis Oosthuizen 48 150
Xander Schauffele 55 55
Marc Leishman 65 95
Adam Scott 55 90
Matt Kuchar 60 80
Kevin Kisner 95 170

Betting Notes

In recent tour events Jordan Spieth has been terrible odds, and correctly so. However for the Master’s this year the market has totally over reacted to his good previous form at the event which is carrying far too much weight on his short price.

Hence Jordan Spieth is our best bet as a “lay” in Outright betting, Top 5, Top 10, Tournament Match Bets and Round by Round match bets.

He still has not shown me enough of a form comeback to warrant any following for any “back” bets. Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas and Jason Day are worth having something on for top 10’s or top 20’s as they come in as some strong overs this week.

I am not convinced Brooks Koepka is going well enough to be the price he is, he does play well in majors but is yet to really prove himself at Augusta yet.

In Play Trading Opportunities

Augusta’s hole by hole scoring averages indicate over time that the Par’5’s average under par and the most difficult section of the course is 10th,11th,12th, with these holes ranking 1st,2nd and 4th respectively in difficulty.

There are good trading opportunities on these holes, I particularly like placing a lay bet on the 10th tee and re-backing 13th tee, however the market must be compressed on the back and lay side to do this.

In the years prior to 2010 the final pairing was the place to be with 19 of the 20 champions coming from the last group. In recent years we have seen a trend change with it becoming closer to 60-40.

Important in play stats:

I generally don’t like to back a leader after day 3 that is only leading by a shot, history shows on the PGA Tour that 75% of players leading by a shot entering the final round don’t win. They average worse than the yearly tour scoring average. This is great for two ball match betting, tournament betting etc. Something to keep an eye on!

I generally lay the first player to get to odds on favorite, providing they have more than 6-9 holes to play, preferably more than 9 to play. Less than 50% go onto win.

Assess the odds of players in the clubhouse, compared to those on the course. Wait until the players on the course have completed the 12th hole before placing any lay bets on players in the clubhouse. Players on the course are usually favored than those in the clubhouse if conditions are conducive to low scoring.

Pre Tournament Selections

LAY – Jordan Spieth for the Top 5 at $5.70

LAY – Jordan Spieth for the Top 10 at $3.00

 BACK – Justin Thomas for the Top 10 at $3.70

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood for the Top 20 at $2.00

 BACK – Jason Day for the Top 20 at $2.00

LAY  – Jordan Spieth v Tiger Woods Match Bet at $2.20

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