Your 2019 Brownlow Medal Odds & Preview

Weekends dedicated to your partner are once again, over.  It’s time to realign those priorities in life to what’s important…..running a brownlow spreadsheet.

2019 shapes as being one of the most hotly contested years of the modern era, where any one of 12 sides have a genuine claim on winning the flag.

And again, the Brownlow is no exception.

2018 Brownlow

2018’s winner is unfortunately sidelined with injury but what he proved to us, was that landing in the ‘sweet spot’ of past winner’s statistic averages gives you every chance of taking home the medal and more than a few contenders this year have that capability.

That sweet spot being:

  • 20+ games/ 30 possessions
  • 15-20+ goals a season. A goal kicking midfielder is one the umpire remembers
  • A positive +/- Free kick differential
  • Top 8 side. Since 2000 (inc Jobe) only 3 Brownlow winners have come from teams outside the top 8.
  • 6+ clearances a game

Long story short, the Brownlow Medal is basically a midfielder in a competitive side.

In our 2018 season blog, we opened by highlighting Tom Mitchell as one of the big chances with the following preview:

Tom Mitchell ($14): In it up to his eye balls.  You know what you’re getting week to week and he doesn’t get attention from defensive mids.  35 possies a game and improvement out of Hawthorn could see him bettering the 25 votes of 2017.  Needs to hit the scoresheet more though.  Averages of 0.5/0.5/0.4 need to be improved on to be considered a medal chance and not just a TOP 3-5.

2018 averages:

Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Frees For Frees Against Clearances
22 10.90 18.90 29.8 3.70 0.50 0.50 6.80 1.00 1.30 6.60

With all that in mind, we’ll run our eye over the top 10 in the market and throw in a hail mary or two for any players that we feel could into fall into that brownlow sweet spotHawthorn went Top 4.  Mitchell hit that 35 average and goal’s increased ever so slightly to 0.6 per game.  More importantly, it was enough to better that 25 votes of 2017.

Market Top 10

Dustin Martin ($7.4 – $11)

Lay. 2018 disposal count was down 19% against his Brownlow year with injury concerns and a change in role contributing factors.  The Tigers proved they’re not so Dusty reliant anymore with an even spread of contributors throughout the 2018 season.  Compounded by a slight knee scare in JLT one, and injury concerns throughout 2018, we’re uncertain if Dusty has the legs for 20+ games.  A prime candidate for a week or two’s rest from the coach also, has us steering clear.

Nathan Fyfe ($7.6 – $8.2)

Can his body hold up? Can he keep the elbows down? Gritting our teeth, but last year’s preview we still think rings true “take with a grain of Salt but injury free, here’s your winner”Was the leader after round 5 & 10 last year polling five 3 vote games and one 2 vote game.  If Fremantle can snare enough wins at home and keep the captain interested and on the park until the end of the season, then he’s the one to beat.

Patrick Dangerfield ($7.6 – $11)

Our ears pricked in the off season when we heard Chris Scott utter the words, ‘more midfield time’ & ‘Patrick Dangerfield’.  That little gem combined with the new rule changes likely benefiting elite midfielders and provide more space and time for brilliance, puts him rightly in the top 3 chances.

Patrick Cripps ($8 – $11)

Carlton need to find 5-6 more wins.  A top 5 result in 2018 was a huge effort for a player coming from a side that won twice but it’s hard to see him reaching a winning number of votes in a side that’s in for 5-6 wins.

Josh Kelly ($14.5 – $20)

Screams Brownlow Medal winner but another with question marks over ability to run the journey of a 22-game year.  Has proven he can shake a tag but without Dylan Shiel by his side, will find himself facing a lot more attention as well.  Liking others more.

Steele Sidebottom ($15 – $34)

One of the 2018 boltersIn for 16-17 votes, he exceeded all expectations and projections to finish 2nd on 24.  That being said, we’re steering clear.  We think a few more sides will follow West Coast’s finals blue print and apply a defensive lock to the gun midfielder to curb his influence on games.

Dayne Beams ($13.5 – $19)

Too short.  Won’t stand out in winning games like he did at Brisbane and won’t see the midfield time either.  Another who is a prime candidate to be ‘managed’ throughout the year also.  More value in other Collingwood midfielders.

Clayton Oliver ($22-$36)

Brayshaw stole a mountain of Oliver’s projected votes in 2018.  In for 17+ he fell well short with a measly 13.  Does that mean he will over-index the year after?  Gary Lyon touted midweek he’s the best midfielder Melbourne have had for 50+ years and if we’re referencing the ‘sweet spot’ again, he’s not far off the mark.  Similar to Tom Mitchell last year, if he can find a few more goals on his 2018 output, he’s not without a chance

Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Frees For Frees Against Clearances
22 10.90 19.80 29.80 3.70 0.50 6.80 6.80 1.00 1.30 6.60

Andrew Gaff ($18.5 – $34)

Pass.  Starts round 3.  Can’t afford to miss anymore after that and trades at a bigger price after the first two rounds anyway.  Not at this price.

Angus Brayshaw ( $20 – $60)

The bolter.  Not in anyone’s calculations for top 5 but managed to come from the clouds to snag 21 votes and finish 3rd.  We flagged it mid-year that the helmet was the new peroxided hair and it could have well been the case!  However, in 2019 we’re liking Clayton Oliver to poll the most votes for Melbourne.

The Value

Scott Pendlebury ($70 – $80)

It’s been 10 years since the Collingwood captain has polled less than 15 votes.  As durable as any midfielder out there and with an uninterrupted preseason under his belt, at $80s, looks a 0.5 unit bet at the very least.

Lachie Whitfield ($80 – $90)

All statistics trending in the right direction.  Dylan Shiel leaves a gap in the midfield and Josh Kelly gets the tag.  Clear air.

Betting Strategy

We are attacking the Brownlow market with five units and are suggesting them up in the following fashion:

 BACK – Patrick Dangerfield for 1.5 units

 BACK – Nathan Fyfe for 1.5 units

 BACK – Clayton Oliver for 1 unit

 BACK – Lachie Whitfield for 0.5 units

 BACK – Scott Pendlebury for 0.5 units

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