Venue Name – Shinnecock Hills Golf Course, New York, June 14-17, 2018

Weather Report

Saturday: Will be mostly sunny. 26 degrees Celsius. Humidity: 53%. Wind 16km/h

Sunday: Will be partly cloudy. 26 degrees Celsius. Humidity: 61%. Wind 18km/h

The wind played havoc on Day 1, with a lot of notable players falling out of contention. Wind, firm greens, and thick rough could see a winning score that is even par or over par.


Leaderboard Day 1

T1 D Johnson -1
T1 S Piercy -1
T1 R Henley -1
5 J Dufner Ev
T6 S Burns 1
T6 M Pavon 1
T6 J Rose 1
T6 C Howell III 1
T6 C Hoffman 1
T6 H Stenson 1
T6 B An 1

Leaderboard Day 2

1 D Johnson -4
T2 S Piercy Ev
T2 C Hoffman Ev
T4 T Fleetwood 1
T4 H Stenson 1
T4 J Rose 1
T4 B Koepka 1
T4 I Poulter 1
T9 R Henley 2
T9 R Fowler 2


Course Details

I am seeing a brown dry look to the course, good shots coming into these firm greens easily find the “fall offs” and run down many meters from the greens edge, making it difficult to get up and down. It is already proving to be a test of patience this week. The wind in the high spots of the course are playing havoc and bringing the deep rough into play. Hitting the ball onto the wrong portion of the greens will also make holing putts difficult on the undulating greens.


Round 1 Summary

Pre-tournament favorite Dustin Johnson was straight the top of the leaderboard after Day 1. Many notable players such as Jason Day, Rory Mcllroy, Tiger Woods, John Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Phill Mickelson, and Bubba Watson looked to have almost certainly played their way out of the tournament.

Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose are arguably they most inform players in recent months on the PGA Tour and are both in strong positions after day 1.


Round 2 Summary

Today saw calmer conditions and players were able to get better control of their game, with my better ranked players rising to the top. Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose are now all in a contending position heading into the weekend, and all these players were in my top 5 pre-tournament rankings.

The course is still playing incredibly tough though, as Dustin Johnson is the only player currently under par.  Dustin Johnson will be very hard to beat from the this position, and I like the fact that he is not trying to win the U.S Open for the first time.


In-play betting for Round 3 & Round 4

The most difficult holes in round 1 were

14th Par 4
3rd Par 4
2nd Par 3
10th Par 4
13th Par 4
12th Par 4
11th Par 3
6th Par 4
7th Par 3

What I notice by looking at the above, is that we can start to group the holes.  The 2nd & 3rd, the 6th & 7th, and the 11th thru to the 14th. Look for players in the earlier leading groups to get through these holes well and look to either place a back bet on these players and then place a lay bet and the same players once the leaders have completed these group of holes. Hole by hole statistics show that if a player is getting through these holes well, then chances are that he will shorten in the market as other players make mistakes on these holes.

Look for players early on Day 3 that have a low round, if the scoring averages above continue along the same pattern, then players finishing early on day 3 with a good score could easily shorten in the market after the completion of Day 3. You should then be able to “lay” back and pinch a % of the market. Then hedge this across the whole market to secure a guaranteed profit on every runner!


Summary

After Day 1 I am already liking the look of inform players Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose appearing on the leaderboard. It continues to show how important current form is in a weighting system. The course set-up indicates that backing premium ball-strikers will be a critical factor. For example – Players like Jason Dufner, Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose could all easily be a major threat.

Will we see another veteran tour player win at Shinnecock Hills? Its a course that requires a lot of patience and experience and could again prove to be of an advantage for veteran tour players. Is Dustin Johnson a veteran? He sure has the experience though to win and has the experience of a veteran.


Bets

All the pre-tournament bets have profited, Sergio Garcia has missed the cut. Dustin Johnson is leading the tournament and we should be able to hedge out of our position for $1.10 and greening up, so that a profit on either is guaranteed. If hedging Tommy Fleetwood, try and get your lay at $1.50.

If you were following my pre- tournament rankings for outright betting, you are “laughing all the way to the bank right now”, as my top 5 ranked players (Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Brooks Koepka and Henrik Stenson) are all inside the top 5. Now is the time to start greening up and laying back all those positions so that you guarantee a profit, as a lot of these players more than 200% less than their starting price. There can only be one winner in golf, so its best to “green up” some of these positions and at least get your initial stake back.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – Henrik Stenson Top 5 at $2.50 for 1 unit

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 at 2.70 for 1 unit


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