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LATE MAIL: AFL

Best Bets

Joel Williams

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Betting Strategy

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BACK: Fremantle -14.5 for 2.25 units

A rare road spot where we can back the Dockers this season. Expecting them to control the territory battle here and the Roos defence to have minimal resistance. Happy to take out to -17.5 here too.

North Melbourne vs Fremantle

These two sides had differing form lines in R1 although for the Roos it was probably near a pass mark as they were up against one of the hottest sides in the competition, the Giants. Whilst the Dockers were able to defy the odds and collect a crucial R1 win against the Lions a game in which many had penciled as an easy Lions W before the season started. For the Dockers it was the worst start they could’ve imagined with 2 x free kick goals and a rushed behind goal to start the game very early. However their ability to stay composed and settle on the back of Jackson and Serong who were amazing was a credit to the side and how they’ve grown. Freo looked super fit and ran the game out well despite being down 3 players towards the end of the match, it’s hard to read into their form with a one game sample size but some early indicators are they look to be more attacking: Kick Forward +%2, Meters Gained From Handball +58%, Mark Play On Rate +10%. In 2023 Ground Balls was a cause of concern as they avg -6.3 per game which was #17 in the league – they bullied the Lions at the coal face in Round 1 going +23. Scoring 25 Pts from centre bounce (double AFL avg) and an ability to score off F50 stoppage work was triple the AFL avg – these are rare avenues to goal but bonus’s for the Dockers who can use it as a base particularly against a young Roos midfield who won’t be able to match it inside. The turnover game wasn’t there and is a room for improvement – North will be a great place to start having cause the lowest amount of intercept possessions over the last 3 seasons. The Dockers started with the ball 95 times outside of CB and F50 and only scored 13 pts – look for them to get this going this week. For North Melbourne it was aggressive ball movement which is going to be a must as they simply don’t have the calvary behind the ball to get enough stops, a shootout is going to be their best chance of winning. They took it up to the Giants in the guts winning 9-11 in centre clearance but when you concede 25 marks inside 50 and your opponent has 35 scoring shots you’re not going to be in many games of football for long. The 2nd Qtr was a highlight for the Roos but this one could’ve been a whole lot uglier with GWS kicking 7.12 after HT and not putting them away and the Roos being deadly accurate. We also like the fact that Alex Pearce looked superb in R1 and can play a role on Roos superstar Larkey. A rare road spot we can back the Dockers this season. Expecting them to control the territory battle here and the Roos defence to have minimal resistance.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Fremantle -14.5 for 2.25 units

A rare road spot where we can back the Dockers this season. Expecting them to control the territory battle here and the Roos defence to have minimal resistance. Happy to take out to -17.5 here too.

AFL BETTING GUIDE 2023

Welcome to Betfair’s AFL Betting Strategies page! If you’re looking to improve your AFL betting strategy, you’ve come to the right place. We’ll provide you with expert tips and insights to help you increase your wagering IQ.

When it comes to betting on the footy, having a solid betting system in place is essential. A good AFL betting strategy can help you make informed decisions about which markets to bet on, when to place your bets, and how much to wager.

At Betfair, we understand that punters want to have the best possible experience when betting on their favorite sports. The Betfair Exchange is a unique platform that allows you to bet against other punters, rather than against the bookmaker.

One of the reasons why punters consider Betfair to be the best company to wager with is the fact that we offer some of the most competitive odds in the industry. Because you’re betting against other punters, you can often find better prices on the Betfair Exchange than you would on a traditional bookmaker’s website or mobile app.

Another benefit of the Betfair Exchange is that you have more control over your bets. You can set your own odds and stake, which means that you can tailor your bets to suit your own betting style. You can also choose to back or lay a selection, which gives you more flexibility than you would have with a traditional corporate bookmaker.

So, what AFL markets can you bet into on the Betfair Exchange? We offer a wide range of markets, including match odds, handicap betting, over/under betting, and more. You can also bet in-play on AFL matches, which means that you can take advantage of changing odds and make quick decisions based on the action on the field.

Now, let’s talk about some AFL betting strategies that you can use to improve your chances of winning. The first thing to keep in mind is that research is key. Before placing a bet, you should do your homework and look at factors like recent form, injuries, and head-to-head records.

Another strategy that can be effective is to focus on specific markets. For example, if you’re particularly knowledgeable about a certain team or player, you might want to focus on betting on them in the first goalscorer market, or in the handicap betting market.

One strategy that is popular among AFL punters is to look for value bets. This means finding bets that have higher odds than you think they should. For example, if you believe that a team has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest, you might want to place a bet on them.

Finally, it’s important to manage your bankroll effectively. This means setting a budget for how much you’re willing to bet, and sticking to it. It’s also a good idea to keep track of your bets and analyze your results over time, so that you can identify any areas where you might need to adjust your strategy.

At Betfair, we have a team of expert AFL analysts who are here to provide you with the latest insights and tips to help you improve your AFL betting. On this page, we offer a range of differing AFL betting strategies on a range of different AFL Exchange markets, as well as offering a range of educational resources, including articles and videos, on other pages on the Hub, like AFL Expert Tips, AFL Brownlow Predictor, AFL Ladder Predictor & AFL Trade Talk, to help you stay up-to-date with the latest trends and developments in AFL betting.

In conclusion, if you’re looking to improve your AFL betting strategy, the Betfair Exchange is the perfect platform to do so. With competitive odds, a wide range of markets, and the ability to bet against other punters, it’s no wonder that so many AFL fans choose Betfair as their preferred betting company. So why not sign up today and start putting your AFL betting strategy to the test?

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